Category Archives: Attribution

Preparing a new talk

Posted on April 2, 2016 by | 280 comments

by Judith Curry

I could use some help pulling together some graphs for a talk I am giving next week.

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280 Comments

Posted in Attribution

Attribution of extreme weather events?

Posted on March 14, 2016 by | 203 comments

by Judith Curry

The National Academies has published a new report:  Attribution of extreme weather events in the context of climate change.

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203 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Extreme events

Nature: Making sense of the early 2000’s warming slowdown

Posted on February 24, 2016 by | 369 comments

by Judith Curry

It has been claimed that the early-2000s global warming slowdown or hiatus, characterized by a reduced rate of global surface warming, has been overstated, lacks sound scientific basis, or is unsupported by observations. The evidence presented here contradicts these claims. – Fyfe et al.

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369 Comments

Posted in Attribution

Insights from Karl Popper: how to open the deadlocked climate debate

Posted on January 28, 2016 by | 654 comments

by Larry Kummer, from the Fabius Maximus website.

Many factors have frozen the public policy debate on climate change, but none more important than the disinterest of both sides in tests that might provide better evidence — and perhaps restart the discussion. Even worse, too little thought has been given to the criteria for validating climate science theories (aka their paradigm) and the models build upon them.

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654 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Scientific method

On the likelihood of recent record warmth

Posted on January 26, 2016 by | 192 comments

by Judith Curry

[O]ur results suggest that the recent record temperature years are are roughly 600 to 130,000 times more likely to have occurred under conditions of anthropogenic than in its absence.  – Mann et al.

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192 Comments

Posted in Attribution, climate models

Has the intrinsic component of multidecadal climate variability been isolated?

Posted on December 15, 2015 by | 124 comments

by Sergey Kravtsov, Marcia Wyatt, Judith Curry and Anastasios Tsonis

A discussion of two recent papers: Steinman et al. (2015) and Kravtsov et al. (2015)

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124 Comments

Posted in Attribution

400(?) years of warming

Posted on November 16, 2015 by | 474 comments

by Judith Curry

So, exactly how long has it been warming?

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474 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Data and observations

Lukewarming

Posted on November 5, 2015 by | 199 comments

by Judith Curry

Two new books on lukewarming have recently been published.

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199 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Communication, Policy

Natural climate variability during 1880-1950: A response to Shaun Lovejoy

Posted on November 3, 2015 by | 362 comments

by Vaughan Pratt

Judith Curry’s recent critical assessment of “L4”, as I’ll call Shaun Lovejoy’s October 20 EOS article, raised the following points:

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362 Comments

Posted in Attribution

Climate closure (?)

Posted on October 23, 2015 by | 717 comments

by Judith Curry

The scientific debate is now over; the moment of closure has arrived. – Shaun Lovejoy

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717 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Sensitivity & feedbacks

New book: Doubt and Certainty in Climate Science

Posted on September 20, 2015 by | 561 comments

by Judith Curry

Doubt and Certainty in Climate Science is an important new book that everyone should read.  And its free.

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561 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Uncertainty

Hiatus revisionism

Posted on September 17, 2015 by | 280 comments

by Judith Curry

Some interesting new papers on the hiatus in global warming.

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280 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Data and observations

Embracing uncertainty in climate change policy (!)

Posted on August 5, 2015 by | 387 comments

We argue for a redesign of climate change mitigation policies to be ‘anti-fragile’ with respect to scientific uncertainty. – Otto et al.

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387 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Policy

Hansen’s backfire

Posted on July 26, 2015 by | 520 comments

by Judith Curry

Jim Hansen’s new paper, and his PR strategy, are raising a whole host of issues that are arguably a backfire for his objectives.

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520 Comments

Posted in Attribution

Impact of AMO/PDO on U.S. regional surface temperatures

Posted on June 30, 2015 by | 146 comments

by Judith Curry

The conclusion is that the oscillatory mode (mostly due to the AMO) is significantly more important than the monotonic mode (mostly due to increasing atmospheric CO2) in explaining the 1980–2000 U.S. temperature increase.  – Bruce Kurtz

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146 Comments

Posted in Attribution

What are the most controversial points in climate science?

Posted on May 4, 2015 by | 412 comments

by Judith Curry

And how might these controversies be resolved?

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412 Comments

Posted in Attribution

Whats up with the Atlantic?

Posted on March 25, 2015 by | 267 comments

by Judith Curry

The Washington Post has this dramatic headline:  Global warming is now slowing down the circulation of the ocean with potentially dire consequences.

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267 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Polar regions

2 new papers on the ‘pause’

Posted on March 5, 2015 by | 649 comments

by Judith Curry

Two new papers were published last week of relevance to the hiatus.

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649 Comments

Posted in Attribution

‘Most’ versus ‘more than half’ versus ‘> 50%’

Posted on January 19, 2015 by | 532 comments

by Judith Curry

Seeking once again to clarify the problems in communicating the IPCC climate change attribution statements.

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532 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Communication, IPCC

Climate dynamics of clouds

Posted on November 6, 2014 by | 177 comments

by Judith Curry

So, what’s going on in the world of research on the climate dynamics of clouds?

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177 Comments

Posted in Attribution

Root Cause Analysis of the Modern Warming

Posted on October 23, 2014 by | 351 comments

by Matt Skaggs

For years, climate scientists have followed reasoning that goes from climate model simulations to expert opinion, declaring that to be sufficient. But that is not how attribution works.

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351 Comments

Posted in Attribution

Evidence of deep ocean cooling?

Posted on October 5, 2014 by | 507 comments

by Judith Curry

New research suggests that the upper layer of the ocean has warmed more than had been thought previously while the deeper ocean has cooled rather than warmed in recent years.

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507 Comments

Posted in Attribution

Two contrasting views of multidecadal climate variability in the 20th century

Posted on September 28, 2014 by | 345 comments

by Judith Curry

Our new stadium wave paper is now published.

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345 Comments

Posted in Attribution

JC at the National Press Club

Posted on September 16, 2014 by | 473 comments

by Judith Curry

I have just returned from my engagement at the National Press Club, sponsored by the Marshall Institute Roundtable.

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473 Comments

Posted in Adaptation, Attribution, Policy

How long is the pause?

Posted on September 1, 2014 by | 696 comments

by Judith Curry

UPDATE:  comments on McKitrick’s paper

With 39 explanations and counting, and some climate scientists now arguing that it might last yet another decade, the IPCC has sidelined itself in irrelevance until it has something serious to say about the pause and has reflected on whether its alarmism is justified, given its reliance on computer models that predicted temperature rises that have not occurred. – Rupert Darwall 

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696 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Data and observations