by Judith Curry
[Marotzke] attributed the oversight to a tendency of each group working on each of the 14 chapters to rely on some other chapter to deal with the issue. And anyone who was thinking about it at all thought some other chapter should handle the issue. – CS Monitor
Ok, now I understand how the IPCC forgot to mention the pause. The Christian Science Monitor has an excellent article on the recent AR5, entitled UN Panel: ‘Extremely likely’ that human activity behind most global warming. Excerpts:
Scientists in the first working group also have tried to tackle the issue of the pause in surface warming that has marked the past 15 years – although they came to the issue a bit late in the process, acknowledges Jochem Marotzke, director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology in Hamburg and a lead author on one of the main volume’s chapters.
Some 200 authors involved in the first report met in Hobart, Australia, in January for a final gathering to hammer out wording, in light of reviews they had received on a previous draft.
“We got quite a few review comments on various chapters saying: What’s going on here? We need to assess what we know” about the hiatus, he said during a briefing Friday morning.
He attributed the oversight to a tendency of each group working on each of the 14 chapters to rely on some other chapter to deal with the issue. And anyone who was thinking about it at all thought some other chapter should handle the issue.
The result is a statement that the slowdown in the rate of warming over the past 15 years is – with medium confidence – due equally to natural variability in the climate system and to a combination of changes in what researchers dub climate “forcings”: in this case accumulated aerosols from a spate of midsize volcanic eruptions in the late 1990s, which have a cooling effect, and a decade that spent most of its time on the downside of the sunspot cycle. As the number of sunspots fall, solar radiation reaching Earth is reduced. While those reductions are tiny in absolute numbers, researchers have uncovered mechanisms by which the climate system can amplify the effect of those small changes.
“This does not mean that global warming has stopped, because the ocean is still taking up heat, sea level is still rising, ice is still melting everywhere we look,” Dr. Marotzke said. Instead, he suggested, this likely is a confluence of conditions where, in Yahtzee terms, the system rolled three dice and all came up sixes.
Still, the group, which relies on studies published in peer-reviewed journals for its overviews, didn’t have much to go on, acknowledges Working Group 1’s co-chairman, Dr. Stocker. “I’m afraid to say there is not a lot of published literature that allows us to delve deeper into the required depth of this emerging scientific question,” he says, citing a lack of adequate measurements of ocean heating, especially in the deep ocean, as one hindrance. This is one mechanism scientists have proposed for moderating the rise in surface temperatures.
One explanation that scientists skeptical of this explanation have offered for the failure of climate models to foresee this hiatus holds that the models reconstruct a climate system that is too sensitive to rising CO2 concentrations.
ndeed, the new report modifies slightly the IPCC’s estimate of how touchy the climate is to changes in greenhouse gas levels compared with the reports the IPCC issued in 2007.
Then, researchers estimated that if CO2 concentrations doubled over pre-industrial levels, one could expect global average temperatures to rise by 2 degrees to 4.5 degrees Celsius (3.6 to 8 degrees F.), with a 3-degree increase as the most likely. Friday’s summary widens that to 1.5 to 4.5 degrees, with no figure given in the summary as a most-likely number.
JC comment: Ok, I appreciate Marotzke’s honesty. But don’t the IPCC authors ever read the newspaper or blogs or anything? How did they miss the fact that the pause is the most important issue in the public debate on climate science, for well over a year now? All this is written for the policy makers, n’est pas? Well of course they might have spotted this in the peer reviewed literature if they hadn’t been so busy with that gate keeping thing.
To me, Marotzke’s statement is much more believable than Michael Oppenheimer’s statement in a PBS interview:
MICHAEL OPPENHEIMER: Well, Roger is completely wrong about the so-called hiatus. That is, the scientists looked at it very carefully. There’s an extensive discussion of it in the detailed background documents will be made public on Monday.
Well, it will be fun to start digging through the WG1 report to find where all this is buried.
Roger Pielke Jr. on twitter sums it up this way:
IPCC–> there is a big difference between saying “we don’t know, emerging area of research” and “nothing to see here, move along”
I have the feeling we are talking about a circus of clowns, but pretending they are serious – or at least normal people. It doesn’t work.
The CSM explanation is not credible.
Curry makes the Drudge Report *again*.
She’s gonna be a household name if this continues. :-)
Breitbart.com link that appeared on Drudge.com :
http://www.breitbart.com/Big-Government/2013/09/28/UN-Climate-Change-Report-Ignores-15-Year-Pause-in-Warming
Pachauri’s Demon is really strange. It causes hotter than average water molecules at the ocean surface to travel over 700 m deep.
However, it only appears to work when the atmosphere is cooling.
Funny thing that……:0)
It’s denial. Ignore it and it will go away. It could happen, but why bet the farm on it?
=========
Perhaps will know tomorrow more on what IPCC scientists really think.
SPM is a short summary, written as a rather obscure text and finalized by government representatives as a compromise that doesn’t necessarily serve well any real need. Being so obscure it does, however, allow presenting interpretations that serve (or are supposed to serve) the interests of people who present those interpretations.
The Technical Summary should be much more informative and the full text – the full text.
Unfortunately, it is the summary for policymakers and may be the only thing they read. They won’t dig into the 1000-page WG1 text, but may get their staffers to look into it, ideally staffers with some science background who can then explain the highlights to them in simple terms.
Actually I don’t think that AR5 WG1 will have much influence on the politicians in any of its incarnations. Nothing has changed so much from AR4 that it would make any difference. The issues that may change are elsewhere, to some extent in what has been learned about mitigation and policy measures, but perhaps even more in the political attitudes.
People will read an obscure document it in various ways, but nobody will be converted. Politicians may easily continue saying what have been saying before.
Pekka,
I agree that overall AR5 will not move much forward nor spark any renewed interest or new policies. Nothing convinces like tangible effects.
I think your wrong. It’s true the media is ignoring this one for some reason (maybe all the blow back?). I think ultimately in the big picture there is a steady drive toward action. Problem is is that it is obviously the wrong approach as even if California stopped emissions altogether it will make almost no difference as I’m sure your well aware of.
http://www.kpbs.org/news/2013/may/24/governor-brown-urges-action-climate-change/
http://csi.gsb.stanford.edu/event-bio-mary-nichols
California is very aggressive.
If they do succeed in finally building a high speed train (that will not actually be high speed) the construction will probably cause more environmental damage and spew out more CO2 than any savings they’ve had up to now.
Ultimately economic factors will probably still rule in the end I would think?
The cement manufacturing industry in California has been capped and they are going to have to import (from China) what they need for the high speed rail adding to the environmental impact:
http://www.vvdailypress.com/articles/regulations-34825-struggle-cement.html
“Relying heavily on construction, however, the local cement companies have suffered severe damages from the housing market collapse and the Great Recession, while facing environmental regulations from both the state and federal government.
California’s cement industry was supported by its high demand during the housing boom. Mitsubishi couldn’t keep up with the demand and was importing 40 percent of its cement at a Long Beach terminal. Companies couldn’t build additional cement plants because the emission levels had already capped in California, said David Rib, environmental manager at Mitsubishi.”
http://blogs.kqed.org/climatewatch/2012/07/27/can-a-bullet-train-shrink-californias-carbon-footprint/
“And some of that depends on how quickly people switch from driving and flying to using the train, he added. According to the study, entitled “High-speed rail with emerging automobiles and aircraft can reduce environmental impacts in California’s future,” 67% of the construction
pollution for HSR comes from making cement. “But construction is a one-time cost…the benefits continue for the life of the system,” he said.”
There are analysts who have said ridership has been widely exaggerated by the board (I wouldn’t know). Now that most of the high speed part is being eliminated you have to wonder will people just continue to take planes and drive? Will public transit even make a dent in California’s car culture, Will high speed rail be a boondoggle as some predict? Those are separate questions, though, to the fact that the IPCC has obviously had a direct effect in influencing public policy and having an effect on government, business and peoples lives.
*affect
California policy is tres stoopid. They cap cement production because of CO2 emission but don’t stop the importing of it from countries that emit even more CO2 in its manufacture then, adding insult to injury, even more CO2 is emitted by the ship that transports it across the Pacific. So they’re making the situation even worse than if they did nothing because CO2 is well mixed in the atmosphere making it entirely immaterial where on the planet it’s emitted. Welcome to climate science logic.
Cutting off the nose to spite the face
ordvic, and the job providing, tax paying, industries continue to flee CA, further eroding their economy. I’m assuming they expect the other forty nine states to prop up their finances, and the current regime may try. Oh how the mighty have fallen!
So the “medium confidence” in the explanation for the pause somehow translates to “extremely likely” for the dominance of AGW? Am I reading this right?
Also, according to Stefan Rahmstorf at RealClimate “Natural internal variability and natural external forcings (eg the sun) have contributed virtually nothing to the warming since 1950 – the share of these factors was narrowed down by IPCC to ± 0.1 degrees.” And that should be consistent with the statement that the pause is “due equally to natural variability in the climate system and to a combination of changes in what researchers dub climate “forcings””.
Maybe they can explain this, maybe I’m just confused, or maybe they just didn’t have time to consider it?
http://www.realclimate.org/index.php/archives/2013/09/the-new-ipcc-climate-report/
At the same time, Michael Mann said that the heat going into the ocean IS natural variability and therefore the pause is not really a pause or something like that. They need to find one story and stick to it.
I agree with Rahmstorf, especially if one realizes that the natural internal variability adds nothing to the long-term trend.
Look at my comment below
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/29/how-the-ipcc-forgot-to-mention-the-pause/#comment-389892
I predict that ENSO-corrected or SOI-corrected temperature references will become more common, if they are not already. These show no pause because they absorb the natural variability.
‘In summary, although there is independent evidence for decadal changes in TOA radiative fluxes over the last two decades, the evidence is equivocal. Changes in the planetary and tropical TOA radiative fluxes are consistent with independent global ocean heat-storage data, and are expected to be dominated by changes in cloud radiative forcing. To the extent that they are real, they may simply reflect natural low-frequency variability of the climate system.’ http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg1/en/ch3s3-4-4-1.html
http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/cloud_palleandlaken2013_zps3c92a9fc.png.html?sort=3&o=29
It is odd that they find the missing CERES heat in the ocean but fail to notice that it is all from SW changes.
http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/CERES_MODIS-1.gif.html?sort=3&o=100
Pukite you are laboring under the misconception that natural variability must necessarily be a zero sum game. This is patently untrue. Natural variability can potentially change albedo so it’s not a matter of energy moving from one reservoir to another and back but rather more or less energy entering the reservoir from the sun throttled by albedo.
Failure to acknowledge that possibility makes *you* the denier.
‘The top-of-atmosphere (TOA) Earth radiation budget (ERB) is determined from the difference between how much energy is absorbed and emitted by the planet. Climate forcing results in an imbalance in the TOA radiation budget that has direct implications for global climate, but the large natural variability in the Earth’s radiation budget due to fluctuations in atmospheric and ocean dynamics complicates this picture.’ http://meteora.ucsd.edu/~jnorris/reprints/Loeb_et_al_ISSI_Surv_Geophys_2012.pdf
Ocean and atmospheric dynamics drive large changes in TOA flux.
Chief said:
I am sure they are large changes in flux but the mean reverts to zero — the main contributor is the SOI, which also has a mean that reverts to zero since the index is calculated as the difference between two pressures..
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/189/ijy.gif
Don’t use the words “Mann” and “stick” in the same paragraph Bill. We have seen more than enough of Mann’s sticks and thankfully so have the IPCC by the looks of it. It’s nowhere to be seen.
Kayak Mike
Twists the shaft
In frantic flash
To make paddle splash.
===============
The means vary over times frames of interest – the mid century cooling, recent warming and recent cooling.
http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/PDO_zps89a7b4c1.jpg.html?sort=3&o=45
This is obvious to ‘real scientists’.
Unlike El Niño and La Niña, which may occur every 3 to 7 years and last from 6 to 18 months, the PDO can remain in the same phase for 20 to 30 years. The shift in the PDO can have significant implications for global climate, affecting Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activity, droughts and flooding around the Pacific basin, the productivity of marine ecosystems, and global land temperature patterns. #8220;This multi-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation ‘cool’ trend can intensify La Niña or diminish El Niño impacts around the Pacific basin,” said Bill Patzert, an oceanographer and climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. “The persistence of this large-scale pattern [in 2008] tells us there is much more than an isolated La Niña occurring in the Pacific Ocean.”
Natural, large-scale climate patterns like the PDO and El Niño-La Niña are superimposed on global warming caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and landscape changes like deforestation. According to Josh Willis, JPL oceanographer and climate scientist, “These natural climate phenomena can sometimes hide global warming caused by human activities. Or they can have the opposite effect of accentuating it.”
http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8703
It seems more like 20 to 40 years in the proxies. Another decade to three cooling?
You are so absolutely full of it Chief.
The data is there for all to see. One takes the SOI, apply a scaling and lag-filters the time series, then subtracts it from the global temperature record and the variance is reduced and the pause disappears.
This works for the past 130 years and is expected to work in the future.
You reject real science and real scientists for what reason? This time Josh Willis and Bill Patzert at the NASA page quite clearly saying that this Pacific system adds to temperatures and then cools on a multidecadal scale.
This is by the way a Pacific phenomenon as they say – combining the PDO and ENSO into the multi-decadal IPO. You newly favourite authors are dead wrong because of their exclusive focus on ENSO.
The data is there as you say – http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ts.gif
http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/PDO_zps89a7b4c1.jpg.html?sort=3&o=45
The Pacific added to global temps between 1977 and 1998 – and have cooled the planet since 2002.
This is what the NASA page said in 2008. It is what I have been saying for years. It is what McLean, de Freitas and Carter said in 2009 – http://www.auscsc.org.au/images/PDF/influenceofenso.pdf . It is what hundreds of scientists have been saying for a long time.
‘ENSO variation goes in both directions. The indications are that ENSO variation added to global surface temperatures between 1976 and 1998. It has been almost 10 years since temperatures peaked in1998. The planet may continue to be cooler over the next few decades as a (decadal) cool La Niña phase of ENSO emerges.’ http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/11/enso_variation_and_global_warm.html
The pause doesn’t disappear – the pause is natural variability. It is likely to persist for another decade or three.
You ponce around as if you have discovered something new but really it is just more of your shallow and ignorant posturing.
Sorry Web but Chief has the more compelling and logical argument. Set point.
WHT, you say “I predict that ENSO-corrected or SOI-corrected temperature references will become more common”. I agree, and I can see how they can do it, even though they have no idea how ENSO and SOI operate: the difference between modelled and measured temperature can simply be used as ENSO/SOI(/anythingelse) correction.
Denise Adams
I am continually amazed by the lack of knowledge among skeptics that comment here. They are the equivalent of the “low-information voter” that people complain about in our political system here in the USA.
The Chief has a chance to take the PDO and show exactly how that number cancels out the noise on the temperature record. Yet he refuses to do that (cuz he has no skilz) and further can not acknowledge that the SOI is all that is needed to explain the vast majority of the yearly variance over the last 130 years.
http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/9159/hpi.gif
I one this one and you don’t even realize it because you are a low-information participant.
WebHub,
I am what you would presume to be a “low information participant.” That does not mean that I’m stupid – or uninformed. I am perfectly aware of what level my “skilz” rank around here, which is why I am so careful not to directly invoke science at a level above my own competency. I haven’t deceived myself into thinking I can figure it out for myself either. I am perfectly clear in my own mind that I cannot solve a “wicked problem”. I have not become so fixated upon finding the pea under the shell that I have lost sight of the fact that we have become involved with in the IPCC process is a swindle: “a direct manipulation of outcome regardless of inputs to a contrived end as desired by the controllers of the process.”
It actually DOES NOT MATTER what the true state of the science is in this process.
The subject of this article is how fourteen chapter authors of the current SPM *all* punted the most important issue in the field to someone else in their working group – to no one at all in effect. WG1 may correct this defect in the full report – but that won’t matter because the organizational function of that report is to be a large, unreadable mass of paper on the desk that policy makers can point to in order to validate their policy positions which are based on the contents of the SPM – AND NOTHING MORE.
The fact that all fourteen chapter authors balked at making any kind of a strong statement on “the pause” in the SPM is a clear indication that there are strong incentives for all of the authors to punt. What these are precisely I don’t know, but it is clear that they are essentially 100% effective over five iterations of the process of protecting the institutional position.
Science is not being advanced by the IPCC process, policy makers are not getting a ‘fair’ assessment of the science, therefore it should be scrapped. QED.
You cannot fix a swindle.
W^3
Web,
Since the maths is all so simple to a great brain like yours, why not publish a paper on SOI correction in the scientific literature as opposed to pabulum on your blog?
Then we can all learn from your intellect
RC,
What I did was not original research. As Chief pointed out, the Aussie denier Bob Carter did the math on this a few years ago.
A few commenters at SkepticalScience also beat me to the punch. As did Tamino. I guarantee you will see more of this, regardless if I were to publish anything.
Jonas is closer to the crux of the problem.
You do not have to understand the source of a 60 Hz audio hum to be able to compensate for it.
Likewise, we have a 130+ year record of the SOI which seems to explain nearly all the fluctuating excursions in the global temperature record. Moreover, these fluctuations appear bounded and have always reverted to the mean.
This stationary property makes the SOI a perfectly adequate candidate to remove the uncertainty in the temperature anomaly time series, including compensating for the pause.
Unfortunately, pointing this out does not feed the UNCERTAINTY MONSTER and that explains why the climate realists laugh at all you fake skeptics … The UNCERTAINTY MONSTER feeds on FUD.
More recent work is identifying abrupt climate changes working through the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Southern Annular Mode, the Artic Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole and other measures of ocean and atmospheric states. These are measurements of sea surface temperature and atmospheric pressure over more than 100 years which show evidence for abrupt change to new climate conditions that persist for up to a few decades before shifting again. Global rainfall and flood records likewise show evidence for abrupt shifts and regimes that persist for decades. In Australia, less frequent flooding from early last century to the mid 1940’s, more frequent flooding to the late 1970’s and again a low rainfall regime to recent times.
Anastasios Tsonis, of the Atmospheric Sciences Group at University of Wisconsin, Milwaukee, and colleagues used a mathematical network approach to analyse abrupt climate change on decadal timescales. Ocean and atmospheric indices – in this case the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the North Atlantic Oscillation and the North Pacific Oscillation – can be thought of as chaotic oscillators that capture the major modes of climate variability. Tsonis and colleagues calculated the ‘distance’ between the indices. It was found that they would synchronise at certain times and then shift into a new state.
It is no coincidence that shifts in ocean and atmospheric indices occur at the same time as changes in the trajectory of global surface temperature. Our ‘interest is to understand – first the natural variability of climate – and then take it from there. So we were very excited when we realized a lot of changes in the past century from warmer to cooler and then back to warmer were all natural,’ Tsonis said.
The correlation of temperature to the PDO is quite obvious. It has been noted thousands of times for more than a decade.
http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/PDO_zps89a7b4c1.jpg.html?sort=3&o=47/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/PDO_zps89a7b4c1.jpg.html?sort=3&o=47
Moreover it is well known that the intensity and frequency of ENSO changes with the PDO. Together the system is known as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation – or preferably – the Pacific Decadal Variation. It is well known that the system persist for 20 to 40 years and has added to warming between 1976 and 1998 and has cooled the planet since. The pattern of the PDV suggests the cool mode is likely to persist for a decade to three more.
e.g. http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8703
The only one who is information limited here is webby with his insane post hoc and anti-science rationalisations.
Chief,
Good , you and your buddy Tsonis say the correlation is there.
I did the work for you. No need to thank me..
http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/9159/hpi.gif
Looks pretty good, eh?
You only have to look at Figure SPM.1a to see that decadal averages show no pause. The 2001-2010 decade was dominated by a long solar minimum, and even then beat the 90’s that had the famous 1998 El Nino, and it will be easy for this decade to beat the 00’s in turn.
I may later bring out my 40-year HADCRUT4 trend again that shows today we are only 0.1 degrees below the trend line, and have been multiple times in the past, as well as equally 0.1 degrees above the trend line. And, by the way, the 0.16 C/decade trend line agrees with 2 C per doubling transient response, somewhat like the models have. In summary, what we have had for the last 40 years is a trend equivalent to a 2 C per doubling TCR with a natural variability of plus or minus 0.1 degrees around it, and today is no exception.
Something like this:
http://s1275.photobucket.com/user/philipnord/media/GMT1973TREND_zpsb18d7538.jpg.html?sort=3&o=2
This is cleaner of all the extraneous stuff.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1970/mean:12/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1970/mean:12/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1970/mean:12/trend/offset:0.1/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1970/mean:12/trend/offset:-0.1
You just don’t like my artist fervor lol. Although the last part of my wiggle (the pause part) definitely looks hedged!
ordvic & Jim D:
1. Why from 1970? Why not from 1969, 1968, 1967, …
2. What physics tells you that the GMT trend since 1970 should be a linear trend?
3. What is the physics/statistical significance of the +/- 0.1 degrees above/below the trend line?
4. What happens when you extend these trend lines back in time?
5. What is the relationship with CO2?
See:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1900/mean:12/normalise/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1900/mean:12/trend/normalise/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1900/mean:12/trend/normalise/offset:0.1/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1900/mean:12/trend/normalise/offset:-0.1/plot/esrl-co2/from:1960/normalise
Aren’t graphs (without any underlying meaning) fun!
I don’t take too much from the charts. I just looked at it and wondered if it was with trend. Steve McIntyre produced a graph showing how the climate models projections don’t match the observed. I think that is Dr Curry’s main point. It looks like McIntyre has a lot of material concerning SPM 1. I haven’t read it all yet. I do think an argument can be made for the ‘pause’ being within a normal oscillation but I’d defer to WebHub and Chief Hydro and their ongoing argument. And the winner is….
ksd, the CO2 effect would have doubled or quadrupled since the beginning of the century, so the end of the record would be where it is clearest. But the “pausists” don’t seem to be interested in anything that happened before 1997, so I think I helped them extend things a bit. What do you think of the “pause” in the context of your figure? Impressed? Game changer? I think not.
Jim D | September 29, 2013 at 7:56 pm |
ksd, the CO2 effect would have doubled or quadrupled since the beginning of the century, so the end of the record would be where it is clearest.
==========
Doubled or quadrupled, really? How exactly does that happen? From what I know the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere has not doubled since the beginning of the century (1900) yet you tell me the effect has doubled or quadrupled.
Citations please.
ksd, in the whole century up to 1950, CO2 rose from 280-310 ppm. It only took until 1980 to rise another 30 ppm and 2000 to rise another 30. It is the rise rate that doubled, and that is what sets the warming rate.
Jim D obviously was talking of the *enhanced* greenhouse effect. That’s the effect from increasing the atmospheric CO2 concentration (and methane, CFCs, etc.) above the stable pre-industrial levels. This enhancement effect increased sharply over the 20th century. The effect of the CO2 that was already there (around 280ppm) isn’t at issue. That effect was to maintain the Earth’s surface 33°C warmer than it would have been without any non-condensable greenhouse gases.
ordvic, from 1980 to now, the 0.5 C temperature rise and 18% CO2 rise means that the effective TCR for CO2 is about 2 C per doubling. This is 50% higher than the 1.3 people like Lewis have estimated. What went wrong? It will be tough to untangle, because whatever his method, he didn’t do the simplest check with reality. Perhaps Steve McI should look at that.
Thanks for that info. I’ll have to think about that. If the pause keeps going (a sideways trend) say for another 15 years how would that affect the postulate? That is why I’d hesitate about any reasoning right now. This other bad chart of mine suggests that still won’t solve the problem. The only way to completely refute the connection would be if it went down without any volcanoes going off in a big way.
http://s1275.photobucket.com/user/philipnord/media/GMT4_zps45cae57f.jpg.html?sort=3&o=1
Jim D | September 29, 2013 at 8:29 pm |
ksd, in the whole century up to 1950, CO2 rose from 280-310 ppm. It only took until 1980 to rise another 30 ppm and 2000 to rise another 30. It is the rise rate that doubled, and that is what sets the warming rate.
================
So, then the rate of temperature rise doubled. Interesting, never heard anyone argue that before. In fact, of late, it looks to have dropped quite dramatically.
You do like to cherry pick data and trends and rates don’t you.
ksd, it is kind of obvious that the CO2 growth rate has accelerated from basically zero to its current level which is a record high. It is also obvious that the temperature response follows that rate. I didn’t think that needed to be spelled out, but if it helps, glad to oblige.
Jim D
Forget the IPCC rehash of decadal averages in Figure SPM.1a
Simply look at the HadCRUT4 globally and annually averaged land and sea surface temperature anomaly and you will see the pause.
Duh!
Moral of the story: sometimes figures DO lie.
Max
Yes, I just posted that above. When you see it in context of the previous pauses you get a better perspective. It is nothing really. Give it more time to get below the -0.1 natural variation at least before you call it something distinct from a random cool perturbation.
You do what Max instructed and you will see the signal is compensated very well by a SOI noise signal directed in a cooling direction over the duration of the pause. Since the SOI is bounded and has the properties of reversion to the mean, this pause is only temporary.
Max says,
Just look at the graph, no statistical tests necessary.
Why not the last 65 years? Just in case there are cycles around sixty and some years. Then, you have a trend of 0.10 /decade. And, yes, today is no exception.
By the way, the plus minus natural variability should be more like 0,2.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1973/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1973/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1948/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1948/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1948/trend/offset:0.2/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1948/trend/offset:-0.2
But then, you have another interesting possibility: No clue.
You are right. Cleaner with a 12 month filter:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1973/mean:12/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1973/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1948/mean:12/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1948/trend/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1948/trend/offset:0.2/plot/hadcrut4gl/from:1948/trend/offset:-0.2
That extension shows the global dimming episode due to the aerosol increase as oil became a major contributor too, with more distributed sources, cars. The cooling is focused around advanced population areas, if you examine it spatially. It adds a complication that starting from the 70’s avoids because aerosols ceased to expand spatially by then.
Yea, Jim D. Whatever. There is always a backward explanation. Economists have a lot of them. This is the reason why the most sensible strategy is asking for the predictions first, and then listen … once the predictions are right.
If it only were the troposphere it could possibly be natural variability. But the predicted – and initially observed – stratospheric cooling has stopped as well. That could be another observation that may indicate the lull is not a phantom or coincidence.
http://www.sparc-climate.org/typo3temp/pics/dcbea89a2d.png
Remarkable, there is always an excuse for the failure of the models to accurately model temperatures (i.e. 15 year pause) from climate catastrophists. The deep ocean is taking up the heat or aerosols and volcanoes reduced solar energy. How about “The models suck because they overweight CO2 sensitivity and we have no idea why there has been a pause.”
Jim, it is one thing to say there is a correlation between population centers and cooling. It is another to cite where one has been shown. Reference?
steven, here is how much cooler the 60’s were than the 40’s. I say industrial populations centers. Some say AMO, but I don’t think it would have this pattern.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2013&month_last=8&sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=08&year1=1961&year2=1970&base1=1941&base2=1950&radius=1200&pol=reg
Jim, it had already started cooling by the time you start your base period and you only selected one month. Here is what I think would be a more accurate representation
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2013&month_last=8&sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=0112&year1=1940&year2=1970&base1=1910&base2=1940&radius=1200&pol=reg
I think if there were a clear cut correlation, or even a not so clear cut one, between industrial centers and locations that cooled during this time period we would have heard of the papers by now.
steven, OK, I had August by mistake, but that month seems to show it pretty well,as do summer, spring and winter, but fall has a warm spot for Europe that seems to cancel some of that cooling. The annual shows the basic cooling regions too but less well. The reason 1910-40 is not good to include as a base period is that 1910 was a solar slump and quite cold. The peak warmth occurred in the 40’s, and the most cooling occurred in the 60’s. That is also the period over which global dimming took place, so if we want to look for the cooling regions, these more focused decades are better.
steven, also, global dimming is largely attributed to the growing aerosols. I am fairly sure people wrote papers on that. I know I have seen at least one TV documentary on it.
Jim, I am certain there are papers that claim aerosols were the cause of the cooling but those are based on global emissions. I have yet to see one that shows it is centered around industrial sites. I have also failed to find one that shows the recent temperatures correlate to industrial sites which is something I looked for once the Chinese aerosols excuse came out. I am skeptical of both claims since if there were such a correlation I’m sure it would be well publicized. If you can’t find one either it is a pretty good indication that the correlation doesn’t exist.
Jim, one other thing. If you take the average temperatures when the AMO is going from trough to peak, say for instance from 1910 to 1940, and you compare it with the average temperature from peak to trough, say for instance 1940 to 1970, what would be your initial hypothesis if there didn’t seem to be very much difference?
steven, you can look for Global Dimming on the web. I found a Wikipedia article where it said the cause was likely sulfate aerosols. Since these have a short range, it would make sense that the most affected areas are near the source, so this is consistent with the map. I have seen people try to explain the cooling with AMO, but you will notice that the east US upstream of the AMO is also cool, so that doesn’t fit.
Jim, you have to get west of Greenland for the warm spot in the negative phase. It matches up fairly well.
https://www2.ucar.edu/news/backgrounders/weather-maker-patterns-map-text-version
steven, I don’t see it.
http://data.giss.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/gistemp/nmaps.cgi?year_last=2013&month_last=8&sat=4&sst=3&type=anoms&mean_gen=0112&year1=1961&year2=1970&base1=1941&base2=1950&radius=1200&pol=reg
Jim, we can just agree to disagree. I am sticking with the hypothesis that if you average the uptrend and average the downtrend and see little difference that the trend is the cause of the changes. You may feel free to see whatever you wish to see.
Warmists seem to have succeeded in reframing the real issue that was raised by the “pause” in their reported temps. It was the warmists who predicted continuous, substantial increases in temperatures over this period. It was the warmists who pledged their knowledge was to astronomic levels of certainty. It was the warmists who claimed they had correctly modeled the climate, and that even if they hadn’t, the average of a suite of models would accurately predict future temps.
The “pause” doesn’t disprove CAGW. It disproves the certainty, accuracy and omniscience claimed by its acolytes.
Did you believe they said every year should be warmer than the previous one, or just every decade, or somewhere in the middle? What exactly in their prediction has been disproved?
Jim D
They said that the warming of the next two decades would be 0.2C per decade.
This has not occurred for the first of these decades (in fact it cooled slightly, despite unabated human GHG emissions, and looks unlikely to occur for the second.
Yet these clowns are totally ignoring the observed lack of warming!
Unbelievable.
Max
manacker, I don’t know if they said 0.2 C per decade specifically for these two decades around 2000 without any uncertainty around it because I can’t find the quote you mean. Even if they did, it is closer to 0.16 C per decade when the “skeptics” were predicting 0 per decade or downwards. 0.16 C per decade is already a 2 C TCR which I am fairly sure was within their uncertainty range, perhaps even at the center of it.
“Did you believe they said every year should be warmer than the previous one, or just every decade, or somewhere in the middle? What exactly in their prediction has been disproved?”
While these seem valid questions as they make clear that random variability does occur in prediction and may even look like a “pause” I would like to bounce it back to you: When exactly would their prediction have been disproved? A 16-year pause? Twenty years? I mean: If this merely a coincidence then temperature anomaly should rapidly increase the following years. Or am I missing something?
peeke, if you can take one decade’s average and subtract the previous one, and find no rise in temperature, and there is no obvious reason like the sun or a volcano, then it would be at odds with expectation, but that has not happened yet. Note also that the land temperature continues to rise during this so-called pause, which is the canary for positive forcing being present, so that would have to stop too. From the graph I showed, you can see a similar behavior to now just before 1998. It seems the energy was being saved up. Give it another two years to rise 0.2 degrees.
OK. Two years to rise 0.2 K. Let’s see. Two years is good, especially since it is short enough for both of us to remember ;)
JimD, Manaker, GaryM, peeke:
Though they did not state where the rise betweeen 0.2 and 0.3C would occur or the exact magnitude, in AR4- WG1 they did state the maximum amount of variability by year 2030. This has been falsified since February of this year. Though one would think from the proponents that oly deniers were spreading mis-informtaion. That is untrue. There is a litany of errors that start with an ECS NOT of 50 years (heat going to the ocean) to stating that the pause is somehow attributable to natural variability. With the falsification of the 2030 magnitude stated in Ch 9 (IIRC), the comment that Judy and others have made that the IPCC is betting on an accelerating temperature rise in the near future is correct. However, none of the reasons offered change that they is a fundamental problem with the attribution of AR4. This is also why persons are calling out the IPCC on their increase in confidence. It starts and ends with attribution. Confidence should have gone down based on AR4. With the SPM indicating that the lower range of liekly ECS has dropped would be required fro confidence to remain the same. But note that in tthe SPM, they left out the most likely value of ECS. I
The IPCC handling of the 21st century pause in global warming brings to mind two songs made famous by Judy Collins in the 1970s:
– Both Sides Now (“I really don’t know clouds at all…”)
and
– Send in the Clowns
Max
“I really don’t know water vapor” just wouldn’t have had the same ring.
Interesting. Paging Mr. Monster. Judith Curry on line #5.
Especially given that at least some aspect of the discussion of the pause, to the degree that it exists outside of a certain arena, is that the pause is, essentially, not instructive as to long-term climate change.
‘The researchers used a climate model, a so-called coupled ocean-atmosphere model, which they forced with the observed wind data of the last decades. For the abrupt changes during the 1970s and 1990s they calculated predictions which began a few months prior to the beginning of the observed climate shifts. The average of all predictions for both abrupt changes shows good agreement with the observed climate development in the Pacific.
“The winds change the ocean currents which in turn affect the climate. In our study, we were able to identify and realistically reproduce the key processes for the two abrupt climate shifts,” says Prof. Latif. “We have taken a major step forward in terms of short-term climate forecasting, especially with regard to the development of global warming. However, we are still miles away from any reliable answers to the question whether the coming winter in Germany will be rather warm or cold.” Prof. Latif cautions against too much optimism regarding short-term regional climate predictions: “Since the reliability of those predictions is still at about 50%, you might as well flip a coin.” http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2013/08/130822105042.htm
The 998/2001 climate shift is the most significant event in climate in recent times – and certainly therefore in climate science. The multi-decadal regimes are significant. They are the result of slow changes in the Sun – primarily solar UV and ozone interactions – amplifying through Pacific ocean and atmospheric circulation. The pressure of the control variable builds until there is an abrupt climate shift. Solar UV/ozone interactions change the sea level pressure in polar and sub-polar regions changing the strength of the polar cyclones. More or less cold polar water is pushed into the Peruvian and Californian Currents. When cool enough at the surface in upwelling zones – cold water upwells from the abyss setting up a series of positive feedbacks across the Pacific. The period that climate is in these quasi equilibrium warm or cool states varies from 20 to 40 years. It suggests that cooler conditions are much more likely than not to persist for another decade to three.
Much longer term the proxies show that we are in a 1000 year warm mode.
e.g. http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/Vance2012-AntarticaLawDomeicecoresaltcontent.jpg.html?sort=3&o=84
http://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00003.1
This seems likely to change as solar activity declines.
They also did not miss out on why the confidence could stay the same: they lowered the likely to 1.7 ECS.
They did miss out on support in SPM on why it is higher confidence, and they did miss out on falsification of the natural variability they put in AR4 by 2030. Or more properly, they have made the bet, as Dr. Curry points out, of accellerating increase in temperature, but without explaining in the SPM why this current falsification of a previous natural variabilty magnitude is correct or the mechanism of change for this wrt to the models.
The problem, with the reasons to date, is that it increases the time for ECS, or shows that the heat flux in the models was wrong. Extending the ECS changes the assumptions of feedback; and since temperature is a function of the mass/enthalpy state, getting the heat flux wrong is a tactic admission that the models are less useful than claimed; since “all models are wrong.”
AR5 will be interesting to compare to AR4 and see if the claims of increased confidence are supported. The way the hiatus was dodged does not leave me very hopeful.
Hello Joshua,
“the pause is, essentially, not instructive as to long-term climate change.”
I disagree. I think it is very instructive, because it suggests that the observed rate of warming was increased due to natural variability in the 1975 to 2000 period, and the observed rate of warming is now being reduced due to natural variability. If we want to have a reasonable estimate of the true underlying secular trend, then a fair accounting of the contribution of natural variability helps us do that. A reasonable estimate of underlying warming helps us to evaluate if GCM’s have made reasonable projections (it looks like they haven’t).
I think angst over the last part is why the IPCC summary does not really address the contribution of variability directly; recent slow warming is suggested to be unimportant because it is due to natural variability, but there are no comments on earlier rapid warming being less important because it was in part due to natural variability. It seems the IPCC just does not want to say that the underlying secular trend is lower than had be claimed in early AR’s, and much lower than the GCM ensemble has projected (a bit more than half the model projection seems likely to me). As Lucia likes to say, they should pull on their big boy pants and address this issue, because it is both good science and because that is needed to ‘inform’ good public policy.
This serves to illustrate my sarcastic point in the previous thread (doctor/patient) metaphor. The “patient” is particularly resistant to the treatment (observational data).
Compare and contrast:
and
Why has IPCC taken “the past 15 years” instead of “the past decade” for its comparison?
Duh!
Because over the past 15 years HadCRUT4 shows a very slight warming (of 0.038ºC per decade – rather than 0.05ºC per decade, as claimed by IPCC), whereas over the past 10 years HadCRUT4 shown a slight cooling of 0.02ºC per decade.
Pick yer period to sell yer message (an IPCC certainly does NOT want to admit that it has stopped warming and started cooling).
Max
So, manacker, let me see if I got this right.
When discussing the potential of long term climate change, it is better to isolate shorter time frames than longer time frames. Is that it?
Say, today where I am is notably warmer than yesterday, even though we are further into the winter season when the sun’s rays provide less warming on a given area of the Earth’s surface in the NH, where I live.
Maybe you’re right after all, eh?
With a minute. I just noticed that my outside thermometer reads 1 degree warmer than just a short while ago – even though we’re further into the winter season when the strength of the sun’s rays here in the NH are on the wane.
This global warming is just relentless, isn’t it?
Joshua | September 29, 2013 at 2:17 pm |
So, manacker, let me see if I got this right.
When discussing the potential of long term climate change, it is better to isolate shorter time frames than longer time frames. Is that it?
===============
Are you saying that, in your opinion, using 15 years is scientifically significantly better than using 10 years?
And it won’t admit it. it’d rather be dead than
admit it. A long term forecast, though I know
i shouldn’t . The I – P – C – C will never admit
– it.
Marotzke’s explanation is entirely plausible. The IPCC tends to be quite chaotic as the final deadline approaches.
Stocker is right too: Because the literature cut-off was in March, there was little to go on.
And Stocker says that ocean temperature data are inadequate.
There was a cat to bell, and they sent to know for whom it tolls.
==================
Fair enough, but the honest thing would have been to stick with the sentence in the final draft:
“Models do not generally reproduce the observed reduction in surface warming trend over the last 10 –15 years.”
and admit ignorance, and apologize for not paying attention to skeptical arguments (not to mention published literature) that addresses these issues.
I do not think that document is a place of apologies of any sort. Admission of ignorance and errors on technical matters,of course, but no apologies. There are other forums for such things if needed.
Judith Curry
I believe what is happening here is the beginning of the final demise of the IPCC.
IPCC has essentially ignored the impact of the pause in its AR5 report and not conceded that the models have failed to reproduce it. IMO this will result in an outpour of critique, which will result in the loss of a lot of any credibility it still had left after Climategate and the other past revelations.
IPCC has lost any semblance of impartiality and exposed itself as a partisan group, trying to “sell” a preconceived message rather than trying to objectively answer questions regarding our climate.
As a result, it will hardly be able to retain its image of being the “gold standard” source of scientific information on our climate.
By “hanging in tough” (and even exacerbating the problem by claiming an increase in the confidence level on late 20th C anthropogenic warming from 90% to 95%) IPCC has cut off its nose to spite its face IMO.
Max
@manacker
It hinges on what the governments think. For now certainly, the US is preoccupied with other silliness.
“and apologize for not paying attention to skeptical arguments (not to mention published literature) that addresses these issues.”
Loving it.
What? Expect apologies between the frying pan and the fire?
====
Draw the invisibility cloak of sensitivity around, wishin’ for less stoic, and more asbestoic.
============
“Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to La-Niña-like decadal cooling … For the recent decade, the decrease in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature has lowered the global temperature by about 0.15 degrees Celsius compared to the 1990s”. SkS quote – 2013
ENSO variation goes in both directions. The indications are that ENSO variation added to global surface temperatures between 1976 and 1998. It has been almost 10 years since temperatures peaked in 1998. The planet may continue to be cooler over the next few decades as a cool La Niña phase of ENSO emerges. – Chief Hydrologist 2007
In almost every climate related news report on Yahoo News, CNN, etc., there are dozens of people in the comment section who clamor that climate science and global warming are big hoaxes because “their models” didn’t predict the “global cooling” of the last 15 years and that “they” don’t have a clue what might be the cause. Why is Judith suggesting that the only “honest thing” for the IPCC to do is to refrain to make mention of the likely effects of the Sun and of internal variability and thereby fake compete ignorance of the most likely explanation of the slowdown?
Richard, do you think that if any of the chapter groups had a good excuse for the pause that they would have not been falling over over themselves to include it? They were practicing something called avoidance. That is the most plausible explanation.
There is a perfectly valid explanation for the pause and it is given by Kasak and Xie in a recent paper [1].
Since Xie is a draft author of the more comprehensive report, I am sure we will see this referenced when that is made available. They deemed it not important for the summary report for unknown reasons.
It is a very solid explanation because amateurs like me can duplicate their results, as can other amateurs who have commented on the SkS blog [2]. Check these out:
http://images.sodahead.com/profiles/0/0/2/0/7/6/2/8/5/2bmvsgissrsquared-117883512421.png
http://www.skepticalscience.com/pics/two_box_enso.png
Compare these against my one-chart analysis, which I will fully write up in a http://ContextEarth.com blog post.
http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/9159/hpi.gif
[1]Y. Kosaka and S.-P. Xie, “Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling,” Nature, 2013.
[2]“The Pacific Ocean fills in another piece of the global warming puzzle, and puzzles Curry.” [Online]. Available: http://www.skepticalscience.com/pacific-ocean-global-warming-puzzle-Kosaka-Xie.html. [Accessed: 24-Sep-2013].
Actually here.
“Our results show that the current hiatus is part of natural climate variability, tied specifically to La-Niña-like decadal cooling … For the recent decade, the decrease in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature has lowered the global temperature by about 0.15 degrees Celsius compared to the 1990s”. SkS quote – 2013
ENSO variation goes in both directions. The indications are that ENSO variation added to global surface temperatures between 1976 and 1998. It has been almost 10 years since temperatures peaked in 1998. The planet may continue to be cooler over the next few decades as a cool La Niña phase of ENSO emerges. – Chief Hydrologist 2007
Yes, Chief, it goes in both directions, like that 60-Hz hum that is rattling between your ears.
It goes in both directions and then it pretty quickly it cancels out. Who would have thunk it? I bet not an Aussie larrikin!
Chief evidently thinks the following SOI time series, which has been operable over the last 130 years, will continue to decline below its mean value. It will have to decrease markedly for the pause to continue.
If it even starts to level off then the GHG rise will resume
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/189/ijy.gif
Not sure what you think you are proving with your little graph thingy. More loser blog science as far as I am concerned.
Here’s another one from peer reviewed science on the Pacific Decadal Variaition.
– http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/Burgmannetal2008-Fig1_zpsf9e3c5b7.png.html
http://circulaciongeneral.at.fcen.uba.ar/material/seminarios09/Burgman_etal_2008.pdf
look at little chief big man squirm.
Rejecting yet more science Webster? Without offering the least bit of real science?
Why do you refuse to understand what is plainly there in peer reviewed science? It goes beyond bizarre.
@Don
I don’t know as I was not there.
Note, though, Stocker’s swipe at those who claim the heat is hiding in the ocean. We don’t have the data
@WHT
Xie was published after the cut-off date (as were a bunch of other very relevant papers).
Webby
You have cited one “perfectly valid explanation for the pause” (Kasak and Xie), but there are many others.
Unfortunately, most of these are simply rationalizations with no real empirical evidence as basis (Chinese aerosols, short-term variability – ENSO, PDO, etc.).
The fact of the matter is, Webby, that no one knows why the global temperature has gone through ~30-year cycles of warming and slight cooling since the modern temperature record started, nor whether or not the current pause is simply part of a new 30-year cycle of slight cooling.
And this greatly weakens the case for the “CO2 climate control knob” hypothesis.
Max
Xie was a draft author so could add content and information concerning supporting research.
It is statistically obvious that the noise source of the SOI contributes the vast majority of the variance while perfectly explaining the pause .
@WHT
Xie could have done that, but then everyone would have been up in arms about the IPCC citing unpublished work, and their own unpublished work at that.
So webby, we can expect those promised more frequent and stronger El Ninos to hit us, any day now? Your nemesis, the Chief, is stifling you. You should consider moving your act to the SkS playground, since that is the source of your inspiration.
Prof. Tol,
If you were running the IPCC process, how would you have addressed the pause?
If not Xie, they could have referenced the denier Bob Carter. He showed precisely how the SOI compensated the warming signal to generate the pause.
This was in the paper McLean, d Freitas, and Carter published in 2009.
This is an all-time no-brainer for explaining the current pause and any of the other previous historical pauses.
@self
Chapter 9 did sneak in Zwiers’ paper in Nature Climate Change … not cited of course as that would break the rules … but the findings are there.
@don
I would run the IPCC as a journal that only publishes survey papers. Commission papers from the best, open up to comments, and commission second and third opinions for controversial subjects.
Thanks, Richard. That looks like science. I vote for you to head IPCC. However, your chances are slim. You have no railroading experience.
Can’t run a train wreck without railroad engineering experience.
To the tune of “Wreck of the old 97”
Pachauri was an en-gi-neer
A very smart man was he
There are lots of smart men who have lost their reputations
Workin’ for the IPCC
They gave ‘im a No-bel up in Oslo, Norway
On a day that was freezing cold
And they told ‘im there that he had to spread panic
To make the climate gravy train roll
He turned and he said to all his climate gurus
Plus the sea level experts, too
The only way you’ll get your funding
Is to blame it all on C-O-2
The gravy train was rockin’ and a’rollin’
And pickin’ up speed just fine
But then it hit a great big speed bump
Caused by tem-per-chur decline
The wheels started wobblin’ and the train started reelin’
Though Pachauri tried to hold it back
But two thousand five hundred climate experts
Couldn’t stop it jumpin’ off the track
It was flyin’ so fast that telephone poles
Were passin’ like a picket fence
And they found him in the wreck with his hand on the throttle
Killed by ov-er-con-fi-dence
So you climate experts all take a warning
With these few words writ large
NEVER BE TOO SURE YOU KNOW WHERE WE’RE HEADIN’
CAUSE MOTHER NATURE’S STILL IN CHARGE.
(with apologies to G. B. Grayson and Henry Whitter, who wrote the old 97 song)
somewhere here on Judiths I wrote a piece about science under deadline.
hmm
I believe it was a good prediction (point).
RE: “Stocker is right too: Because the literature cut-off was in March, there was little to go on.”
And why do *you* suppose that was?
The cut-off was in March 2012 or 2013? When AR4 came out in ’07 we were already what, 10 yrs into the ‘pause’ (with no mention of it) and in the ensuing 6 yrs, I’m guessing the hope was that the warming would continue as ‘expected’ so no need to look into it. Of course, until now, when suddenly it’s the ‘pause’ that was ‘expected’ . . . and yet unexplainable.
How many other fields can’t fully explain what they ‘expected’ to happen? Or better, how many fields would even propose they expected something to happen that they couldn’t explain? And still can’t even after it happened.
I’m in the wrong business.
Kind Regards,
Barn
THE SENSIBLE CENTER OF CLIMATE CHANGE
The sensible center of climate-change is simply this: Everyone Is Right
The IPCC Has Got-It-Right #1 The IPCC scientists is entirely correct that climate-change is human-caused.
Judith Curry Has Got-It-Right #2 Rational skeptics like Judith Curry are entirely correct that the claimed accuracy of IPCC5 CO2-sensitivity models is just over-stated.
James Hansen Has Got-It-Right #3 James Hansen and colleagues are entirely correct that the paleo data plainly tells us that the IPCC5’s climate sensitivity has been calibrated far too *low*.
Naomi Oreskes Has Got-It-Right #4 Sociologists and historians like Naomi Oreskes are entirely correct that climate-change scientists are too conservative.
The Popes Have Got-It-Right #5 Pope Francis and Pope Benedict are entirely correct that these problems need to be addressed now.
Plain Citizens Have Got-It-Right #6 Wendell Berry is right that solutions begin with Jefferson-style responsible citizens and their communities.
Politicians Got-It-Right #7 The world’s equatorial-nation politicians are right to pragmatically appreciate that the ‘pause’ is over already.
CONCLUSION Move along folks! No substantial disagreements here!
http://terriermandotcom.blogspot.com/2009/07/wendell-berrys-pipe-dreams.html
LOL … Steven Mosher, did yah notice that your guy “TerrierMan” is mighty eloquent about his ardent *love* of ObamaCare and his ardent *opposition* to moronic Randian/Kochian/Hayekian libertarianism?
As for Wendell Berry, he can speak for himself, in which regard Wendell ranks among the most eloquent of all American originals.
The above conclusions are plain common-sense, eh Steven Mosher?
I was more focused on the murderous tobacco farmer who has killed people with his product.
As for literature, Berry is a hack.
Words to live by, eh Steven Mosher?
Mr Berry has some amends to make to those he murdered.
I suggest he start with making amends to Anthony Watts whose parents died prematurely of tobacco related illness. Then he can do the same to me.In my case I’ll take cash. Like the cash we got for the industry that caused my grandfather’s early demise, I’ll take cash from the murderous tobacco farmer.
Tobacco farmers have no responsibility for what they sell, only the tobacco companies.
And the fact that most tobacco farmers contribute to Democrats, and the tobacco companies used to mostly contribute to Republicans, had absolutely nothing to with it.
Gosh Steven Mosher … words must utterly fail you in regard to The Heartland Institute!
It *is* kinda remarkable to see the denialism smear-machine gearing up to attack … Wendell Berry?
A different explanation about “How the IPCC forgot to mention the pause”, published on Monday:
Obama & Allies Tell UN to Cover for Lack of Global Warming (http://www.thenewamerican.com/tech/environment/item/16599-obama-allies-tell-un-to-cover-for-lack-of-global-warming )
Quote:
As the United Nations prepares to release its latest report on “climate change,” leaked documents obtained recently by the Associated Press show the Obama administration and other governments are pressuring the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to cover up the fact that “global warming” essentially has been stopped for the last 16 years.
Truly amusing to watch the American’s faith in occult ‘deep heat’, the British on mystical mists, and the rest of the Europeans on framing and propaganda. It’s fabulous.
===================
I think your argument explains the difference between the final draft and the actual final report (i.e. politics).
Of course a work of science, or even a scientific report, should not be subjected to negotiation and compromise, with input from various outside parties (in this case countries) as to what should be included and what excluded in the interest of how things will “sound” to the public. It’s really quite ludicrous.
Yep. For the Left, rhetoric trumps reason and all else. Some saw long ago that the conclusion of this affair can only be the last ideology standing.
Ah yes. “According to analysts….”
Reminds of of when the Weekly World News explain what “scientists say.”
And “already being described….in the press.”
Which media, specifically? The Weekly World News?
At any rate, I’m glad that now we’ve got the explanation for the politics all worked out.
Which makes one wonder why the politicians want to fool the people and bully the scientists.
============
New meme, folks; ignorant and arrogant scientists bullied by ignorant and arrogant politicians. Bystanders expect future fur to fly.
=============
Interesting how every sentence begins with Obama. Apparently in between dealing with Congress, DC shootings, Syria and Iran, he has been pestering the IPCC as well. I think not. This looks like just a polemic.
Joshua, I share your criticism but the fact that the article was published some days earlier and correctly predicted what actually happened gives it some credibility, I think.
Kim, as a poet you do not need to labour too much, I guess, to recognize the political incentives. The fact that modern politics uses scientists, as old politics used clergy, is not too difficult to explain, I think.
The fact that modern politics uses scientists, as old politics used clergy, is not too difficult to explain,
Indeed eg Tolstoy to Ghandi.
New justifications have now appeared in place of the antiquated, obsolete, religious ones. These new justifications are just as inadequate as the old ones, but as they are new their futility cannot immediately be recognized by the majority of men. Besides this, those who enjoy power propagate these new sophistries and support them so skilfully that they seem irrefutable even to many of those who suffer from the oppression these theories seek to justify. These new justifications are termed ‘scientific’. But by the term ‘scientific’ is understood just what was formerly understood by the term ‘religious’: just as formerly everything called ‘religious’ was held to be unquestionable simply because it was called religious, so now all that is called ‘scientific’ is held to be unquestionable
Indeed eg Tolstoy to Ghandi
Wow–what a quotation! It was written a century ago!
maksimovich
Thank you for citing Tolstoy’s valuable insight. e.g. it is in The Complete Works of Leo Tolstoy
It was written from Tolstoy to the editor of Free Hindustan. A copy eventually fell into Gandhi’s hands and he translated and published it
Outstanding quotation, maksimovich.
And note how the high priests of the new church meet in secret conclave to decide what should be included in the new cannon. Their actions, decisions and communications beyond the jurisdiction of any country in the world.
The analogy with the church is not a trivial one.
Yep, I read that link and I think my IQ dropped 10 points. I started counting perjorative content, and decided I should try to find sentences without such. Finished the article very quickly.
‘The fact that modern politics uses scientists, as old politics used clergy, is not too difficult to explain,”
gulp.
@Steven Mosher…
Surely that doesn’t surprise you?
Joshua – despite the biased embellishments, the underlying story, apparently uncovered by the AP, is a fairly important one, no?
no AK, not surprising.
just well put.
“The fact that modern politics uses scientists, as old politics used clergy, is not too difficult to explain”
Old politics?
Forget faux “Reverends” like Jesse Jackson, the USCCB (United States Conference of Catho9lic Bishops) is almost a wholly owned subsidiary of the Democrat policy. You name it, “global warming”, immigration amnesty, fighting welfare reform, and even socialized medicine/Obamacare.
The only place they really dissent (for many of them only because they have to) is on abortion and gay marriage. Their shock and hurt feelings at Obamacare forcing the Catholic Church to subsidize abortifacients has been hilarious.
Oh yes. No doubt. I know tons o’ people who say “Whatever scientists say can never be questioned.”
Tons.
Here is a suitable fresh start:
http://www.newclimatemodel.com/new-climate-model/
let us know when you finish your IV & V.
I think there is another explanation of what happened. It was obvious in the months over which the AR5 was prepared that the IPCC had two choices; both of which were bad. They could either ignore the pause, and be unscientific; or they could acknowledge that their previous reports exaggerated the problem. Dr. Stocker deliberately chose the former; which is why Alex Rawls leaked the SOD.
When the time came, national delegations insisted the pause be inckuded. By this time it was too late; you cannot write a proper scientific report under that sort of pressure. Dr. Jarroud, on the Friday, said he had had 2 hours sleep in two days.
As Max remarked; Send in the Clowns.
As our department head used to say, “Something dropped between two stools.”
JC asked, ” How did they miss the fact that the pause is the most important issue in the public debate on climate science, for well over a year now?”
They didn’t miss it. Each and every one of them said, “Not my problem.”
And the heat under the ocean? It’s the monster under the bed. Scary until you look down there and find it’s just dust bunnies and old socks.
How did they miss The Pause?
The ABC, OZ News tonight presented the IPCC unequiviocal
Message of Man Made Global Warming, seas ter 80cm,
frankenstorms, more drought, oracular sound bites from
weird people… no mention of The Pause.
And it’s supposed ter be OUR ABC. Should’nt that include
skeptics? The leftist media machine continues on message.
Beth
Think of a super tanker with a crew on the bridge that is barely aware of some people waving at them from a tiny rowing boat a long way away.
They have to hear what we are shouting before they would even contemplate changing direction, even assuming they wanted to.
tonyb
tony b
Your supertanker/rowboat analysis points out the immense momentum that the multibillion-dollar CAGW business has been able to build up.
The powerful collusion of separate interests, from politicians seeking increased tax revenues to industrialists seeking taxpayer funded subsidies and increased profits to guilt-driven ideologues seeking a simpler pre-industrial life to green lobby groups seeking power to scientists seeking funding to the media seeking increased ratings or readership has created a juggernaut, which can be compared to a supertanker.
But I think that the futile cries from the rowboat, which you describe, will become louder, thanks in great part to dedicated scientists, such as our hostess here, until they become a roar of indignation and outrage.
And if these coincide with an extension of the pause in warming of the past decade or more, they can well push the supertanker onto a new course, or stop it dead in the water.
Serfs unite!
Max
Meh, the gash is under the waterline and the length of the ship. There are enough life boats, once the lives get re-arranged.
===================
There has ter be a backwashsh.
So serfs,
what
do
we
do?
Max?
Some
one
make
a
list.
Heh
where’s
faustino?
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/mean:360/plot/hadcrut4gl/mean:60
Globally averaged, since 1959, when Keeling started CO2 record-keeping, we see twelve pauses (that is, downward trend uninterrupted by upward trend) on the 5-year averaged trend line, none of them longer than the initial ‘pause’ back through the 1960’s. Sure, some of them can be strung together to form larger pauses, but then the upticks have to be cherry-picked out to do that, a sure indication of biased interpretation.
Since 1959, we see ONE pause, the initial one in the 1960’s, and no other, on the climate trend line.
So. Talk about the pause. It happened in the 1960s. Or talk about the pauses, there have been a dozen of them since the 1960s. But don’t make crap up.
“since 1959” conveniently blinkers the discussion. Don’t you like the “pause” from 18060-1910 or the “pause” from 1940-1975? We would not want anyone to suggest this has happened before would we, so lets say “since 1959” . Like you say a sure indication of biased interpretation.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/rss/mean:360/plot/rss/mean:60
Now we are told that the dips in 80s and 90s were due to massive volcanic explosions without which the rise would have been steeper. There have been ZERO major explosions since Mt Pinatubo so the current “pause” proves both the volcanic forcing and supposed AGW to be TOTALLY incorrect.
So. Talk about the pause. But don’t make crap up.
climategrog | September 30, 2013 at 2:13 am |
Observations and analyses disagree with your expert conclusion:
http://www.agu.org/wps/ChineseJGeo/49/05/qwz.pdf shows you’re just plain wrong.
http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011GL047563/abstract shows you’re doubly wrong. Since 2002, “..the observed trend is mainly driven by a series of moderate but increasingly intense volcanic eruptions primarily at tropical latitudes. These events injected sulfur directly to altitudes between 18 and 20 km. The resulting aerosol particles are slowly lofted into the middle stratosphere by the Brewer-Dobson circulation and are eventually transported to higher latitudes.“
“Girma-Curry” or “Girma at Judy’s”?
Bart R
Your analysis is too short-term to have much meaning.
Look at the entire 160+ year modern temperature record.
You will see repeated ~30-year cycles of warming and slight cooling. After the most recent warming cycle in the late 20th C (which is statistically indistinguishable from another one in the early 20th C before there was much human CO2), we have now entered a 10-15 year “pause”, which could well be the start of a new 30-year cycle of slight cooling (as we had before).
Over the same long-term period GHG concentrations from human GHG emissions (principally CO2) increased at a fairly steady exponential rate.
IOW the statistical correlation between CO2 and temperature is weak to non-existent – and where there is no robust statistical correlation, the case for causation is highly questionable.
That’s the key problem, which the “CO2 control knob” hypothesis (and IPCC’s CAGW premise that is built upon it) has.
And Bart, no amount of short-term rationalization on your part can overcome this basic problem.
Sorry ’bout that.
Max
manacker | September 30, 2013 at 8:15 am |
You appear to be confused. My comments were restricted to the semantics of the term ‘the Pause’ based on observations. If you want to talk about other stuff, be my guest, but I prefer you stop making stuff up.
Bart R
No mix-up on my part, Bart.
Small bumps and grinds in the temperature record are meaningless, but there have been a few notable “pauses” (multi-decadal periods of slight cooling lasting ~30 years each) over the past 160+-year record, with multi-decadal periods of rapid warming (also lasting ~30 years each) in between.
The most recent warming cycle appears to have ended around 2001, and it has cooled slightly since then.
The real unanswered question is whether or not the current “pause” is the beginning of another ~30 year cycle of slight cooling or not.
IPCC skirts this issue (as you did), but it still remains an unanswered question.
Max
manacker | September 30, 2013 at 8:15 am |
Skirt the issue?
I didn’t mention it at all, as it’s nothing to do with what I was talking about.
Skirted? I crinolined and petticoated. You just made crap up and pettifogged.
What test do you use, now that you brought this entirely other topic up, to tell you which bumps and grinds are meaningless, and which ones you want to marry?
Their ‘thirty-yearness’?
How do you determine if they’re 30-yearly?
Do you draw a grid spaced 30 years apart and move it around until it sorta-kinda matches some of the bumps and grinds in the data, and then blot out all the rest as ‘meaningless’?
So then your only rule of whether to accept or reject observations is whether or not they fit your preconceived idea?
Do you not detect a flaw in this motivated reasoning method you use?
Cyclic physical events have cyclic underlying physical causes, and regular periodicity. Pseudocyclic events have pseudocyclic underlying causes, and approximate periodicity.
Your events clearly have noncyclic coincidental natural causes (such as volcano influences) or result from the additive interference of cyclic (such as seasonal) or pseudocyclic (such as the Hale pseudocycle and ocean oscillations) events of differing frequency with natural variability (such as from blowing past tipping points) and by far the largest single factor, human influence.
We can see this by plotting and removing the effects of each of the influences one by one from the overall results, and we can do this not just in global surface temperature but in all of the 50 essential climate variables identified by the WMO. When BEST did this for land temperatures, it clearly eliminated your ~30-year illusion and showed plainly the fingerprints and DNA of human carbon emission.
Or, you could do it more simply.
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadcrut4gl/mean:191/mean:193
It’s hotter now (1997.58=midpoint of current 32-year mean; 0.320078) than it was 30 years ago (1967.58 midpoint, mean=-0.0629575). It was hotter 30 years ago than 60 years ago (1937.58 midpoint, mean=-0.0900933), and both are hotter than 90 years ago (1907.58 midpoint, mean=-0.399253), until you get to 120 years ago, when the rising backtrend for the 32-year means ending with the latest observation show a reversal (1877.58 midpoint, mean=-0.272289). In other words, there’s no freaking cycle of ups and downs, but only ups over time for a century on your 30 year grid. You can repeat this treatment for any ~30 year speculated period, failing to show a cycle for the whole range of endpoints on the available data.
The only way to procure a pattern of alternating ups and downs is to selectively detrend the whole curve from a cherry-picked pivot year, and then cherry-pick which dates to look at for ups and downs. That trick, we’ll call it “Girma’s Curry Trick”, is simply a form of lying.
Why do you prefer to lie?
(Wrong sub-thread:)
“Girma-Curry” or “Girma at Judy’s”?
Bart R
Rather that cherry-pick shorter periods to prove a point, it is best to look at the whole temperature record.
I don’t know how good (or bad) your eyesight is (mine’s 20-20), but if you look at the long-term modern temperature record three multi-decadal cycles of rapid warming of roughly 30 years each become apparent, with two slight cooling cycles of about the same time length in between.
The early 20thC and late 20thC warming cycles are statistically indistinguishable. For the past 12 years we have been in a period of slight cooling; whether or not this is the beginning of another 30-year cycle of slight cooling is anyone’s guess.
These multi-decadal temperature cycles show no robust statistical correlation with atmospheric CO2, which has been rising at a fairly smooth exponential rate since measurements started.
Where there is no robust statistical correlation the case for causation is weak (and that’s your problem here).
Max
Bart R
I forgot to mention that the whole cyclical temperature record is on a tilted axis of slight warming (around 0.6C per century).
Max
manacker | October 1, 2013 at 7:53 pm |
It appears you are confusing ‘phase’ and ‘cycle’.
The cycle is the thing that returns to its starting point, like a circle, exhibiting circularity.
Hence a 30-year up phase and a 30-year down phase returning to the same level form a 60-year wave, oscillation, or cycle.
WHICH YOU DON’T FREAKING HAVE HERE.
You have up phases of varying lengths and amplitudes depending on how you filter smaller phases, that on climate spans are rising consistent with the predictions of the GHE, correlating with GHG levels, with variability from other sources.
When discussing phases, it makes great sense to look at them. When discussing “The Pause”, it makes great sense to look at the phases that show pause. There is only one way to construct a singe ‘The Pause’ on climate-length timespans: smooth to 30-year mean or longer, and cut off the time before the most recent pause on that span. Which is how I selected a starting point in the 1950’s.
That there are a dozen or more ‘pauses’ of varying length since then if you don’t smooth, but _NO_ single pause on any smoothing equal to the past decade (because 2007 cuts the decade into two pauses).
So you can pretend you see cycles, which would be phases, but they just aren’t there by any rational standard of measure. And you can pretend to see a single pause in the past decade, but there isn’t one “The Pause” in the past decade by any rational standard of measure.
Or, you can stop making crap up.
The following is is my understanding of “the pause” and its implications.
As background, consider that Kosaka & Xie [1] are able to explain the pause in terms of a compensation effect that is transient. In the IPCC document, Xie is listed as a draft author.
Xie realizes the pause or hiatus is a big canard and that their paper provides significant evidence that it is a oceanic disturbance.
I went through the analysis myself, and verified that the Southern Oscillation Index is the major compensating factor.
http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/9159/hpi.gif
Since the SOI has been stationary with a 10-year running average that is near the long-term mean for over 100 years, we can’t expect that a noise-related pause to continue.
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/189/ijy.gif
Look at the latest moving average trend and you can see how the SOI is reverting back to its mean by gradually getting colder. That is a red noise phenomenon to revert to the mean [2]. It can’t keep going much more if the past 130+ years of evidence are any indication.
The authors are evidently not noise jockeys — like most of the garden variety skeptics are — and deemed it useless to focus on a fragment of noise that won’t make any difference in the long term.
Refs:
[1] Y. Kosaka and S.-P. Xie, “Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling,” Nature, 2013.
[2] D. L. Rudnick and R. E. Davis, “Red noise and regime shifts,” Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers, vol. 50, no. 6, pp. 691–699, 2003.
Yet “noise jockeying” is just what the IPCC has been doing for the last 30 years.
Having assured it was nothing to do with solar and ‘internal’ variation during the 80s and 90s , that suddenly becomes the explanation now. Still without admitting this must, by the same argument, be true of the earlier rise.
One is a dice rolling coincidence, that other is “science”. Pure hypocrisy.
Goodman, The correct data span is 130 years. The temperature anomaly is about 0.9C over that time. They can further remove sources of noise until the trend gets even more obvious, such as shown here:
http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/9159/hpi.gif
That is why the majority of climate scientists aren’t noise jockeys.
OTOH, the analysis that you routinely put out is interesting and you may yet find an acorn somewhere in that slop that supports your position. But it is soooo much easier to find correlations with the correct view. We all know why you won’t do this though …..
That is the real hypocrisy.
” But it is soooo much easier to find correlations with the correct view.”
+1.
Pingback: The IPCC And The Pause | Transterrestrial Musings
A nice perspective on the “pause”:
http://tinypic.com/r/4oklj/5
Since the 2000-2010 decade was the warmest on record, and we are but 3 years into the next decade, maybe the “pause” will turn out to be statistically insignificant to the longer-term forcing from the human carbon volcano. Certainly we are getting closer to understanding the reasons for this plateau.
R. Gates
At this moment, it still makes sense for you to use the “warmest decade” argument.
Of course, if the current trend of slight cooling continues for another 5-6 years, this will no longer make sense, since the decade 2011-2020 will be around 0.05C cooler than the previous decade 2001-2010.
If, however,instead of “decades” one looks at 5-year periods, we already have 2008-2013 at around 0.04C cooler than the previous 5-year period 2002-2007.
Extrapolating this observed change over the entire 21st century would put year 2100 at around 0.6C cooler than 2012 (essentially reversing the entire warming of the 20thC).
So it’s only a matter of time until the currently observed slight linear cooling trend can be expressed as “second warmest decade” in the new century.
Let’s see what the future brings, Gates.
Max
Making decisions based on models that are constructs of, “a climate system that is too sensitive to rising CO2 concentrations,” is like running the economy based on a board game like Monopoly.
Judith Curry,
I see the specter of Stephan Schneider and his proposed honesty vs advocacy ethical stance climate scientists should adopt.
I believe your faith in the integrity of those whom you know in climate science is misplaced. The mishandling of the pause by government advising groups, not just the IPCC, can only be viewed as deliberate and consensus.
Personally, I despair at the injury to science.
I morn for those who entered climate science with high hopes and personal integrity.
Is there not some cadre of the willing who can be cabled together to redirect climate science that will explore natural variability while postponing developing high certainty probabilities?
There is a “systematic warm bias” that, according to Roger Pielke, Sr., “remains in the analysis of long term surface temperature trends.” Meanwhile, the oceans that store heat continue to cool.
The Earth has been in a cooling trend for a decade and the oceans have been cooling since 2002 with no end to the cooling in sight, according to Dr. Spencer. And as Dr. Pielke, Senior observed, in a period when the oceans are cooling there is no warming during that period.
Wagathon, it’s far from evident that Dr. Spencer is well-qualified to critique *any* body of scientific evidence, in that Spencer’ reasoning processes are grounded in faith (not the reverse).
The comparison with the integrated rationality-first reasoning of the “climate-change sensible center” (IPCC/Curry/Hansen/Oreskes/Berry/Francis/Benedict) is evident, eh Wagathon?
Did Spencer really say that about the oceans?
If so, OMG…time for someone to hang it up and call it a career!
FOMD, how do your credentials stack up to Dr. Spencer?
“Roy W. Spencer received his Ph.D. in meteorology at the University of Wisconsin-Madison in 1981. Before becoming a Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville in 2001, he was a Senior Scientist for Climate Studies at NASA’s Marshall Space Flight Center, where he and Dr. John Christy received NASA’s Exceptional Scientific Achievement Medal for their global temperature monitoring work with satellites. Dr. Spencer’s work with NASA continues as the U.S. Science Team leader for the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer flying on NASA’s Aqua satellite.”
Amazingly enough, none of James Hansen’s degrees are in climatology or meteorology.
When you start losing the argument, you resort to ad homs, like all of your fellow arrogant elitist global warming catastrophists.
Chuck L, please pause to reflect that precisely *none* of the arguments in your post bear upon the scientific evidence that:
• Darwinian evolution is real, and
• Anthropogenic climate-change is real.
Perhaps that is why far more people are convinced of Hansen’s evidence-based science, thank of Spencer’s faith-based denial of that science?
Think it over, ChuckL!
I have to agree with you Fan, if Dr. Spencer really does believe in creationism that is a little scary. There was an interesting court case presided over by a republican judge and GHW Bush appointee who handed down a pretty definitive ruling:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kitzmiller_v._Dover_Area_School_District
A PBS documentary was made about it. If you haven’t seen it I’d highly recommend it. I didn’t necessarily have to see it as I got a ‘B’ in Anthropology 101. Still, they (the scientists) put on a very convincing case:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/evolution/intelligent-design-trial.html
However this apparent blind spot of Dr. Spencer doesn’t make me dismiss, out of hand, his science work or presentations. As ChuckL mentions he has quite a pedigree.
Chuck L,
My credentials are not important, but what is important is how Spencer’s claims stack up against actual measurements and data as collected and documented by other experts in the field. If in fact Spencer did make the claim that the “oceans have been cooling since 2002” then such a claim would be in direct opposition to the judgement and findings of other experts in the field. Furthermore, it would indicate that he isn’t keeping up or is flatly ignoring the fact that the oceans are seeing their highest heat content readings in decades.
Roy Spencer’s self-proclaimed credential “official climatologist for The Rush Limbaugh Show“ does not induce confidence in most scientists.
Yikes.
This crap about religious beliefs disqualifying someone from being able to do science needs to stop. It is nothing but bigoted foolishness. Dr. Spencer would have never earned a Phd., if he had let his alleged belief in Creationism, or whatever, seep into his academic pursuit of understanding the science. He would have flunked every freaking test and quiz. Do you characters believe that all the scientific knowledge that humans have accumulated over the course of history was produced by atheists? Now watch one of them say it was agnostics. Pathetic ad hominem BS.
Don, it’s just projection from the religious convictions of the faithful alarmists, the doomist Malthusians, the deepest ecologues. Gollum gotta fishy.
==============
I would add Isaac Newton was a committed alchemist:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Isaac_Newton%27s_occult_studies
Newton died a long time ago, fanny. And he made his contributions to the advancement to science before he died. And this is the last time I will read or respond to your foolish BS. Please do not change your poison pen name, or your attention seeking silly signature.
Don Monfort, your unique insights will be missed!
Fan, I donno being an atheist myself I find it hard to understand how really bright people (far brighter than me) can believe in such obvious nonsense. Darwin supposedly became an atheist at the death of his daughter believing no god could be that cruel. Not very good reasoning to me. Gregor Mendel was a Catholic Monk http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gregor_Mendel
George Lemaitre (father of the big bang theory) was a Catholic Belgian Priest. A few notables who believed in God and were religious:
Nicholas Copernicus
Sir Francis Bacon
Galileo Galilei
Rene Descartes
Blaise Pascal
Isaac Newton
Robert Boyle
Michael Faraday
Gregor Mendel
William Thomson Kelvin
Max Planck
As to your question of Newton. I would suspect probably not. However the point is that he believed what he did at the same time he developed modern calculus and physics.
Modern devoutly religious “green” leaders include Wendell Berry and Jane Goodall, as well as Pope Francis and Pope Benedict (obviously). Sociobiologist Ed Wilson too comes from deep Baptist roots.
Criticism of religion is notably absent from the scientific and economic writings of all of these people.
Al Gore was a seminary school dropout and now leads the Church of Warmanism.
Religion is a custom. It doesn’t have much to do with mental capacity.
fan of *more* denigrations,
Intellectual giant Isaac Newton of the Principia was also
a student of alchemy. I guess there’s an imaginative
openness ter some enquirers that take them down by-
ways that timidly conventional followers of consensus
would not dare ter contemplate.
A serf.
Spencer has advised the Rush Limbaugh program and Michael Mann has advised everyone he is a Nobel Laureate..ERRRRRRRRR nevermind!
Only one is an example of clear fraud.
SST has decreased since 2002:
http://www.woodfortrees.org/plot/hadsst2gl/from:1990/to:2001/trend/detrend:0.19884/plot/hadsst2gl/from:2002/trend/detrend:-.06265
After a decadal warming of almost 0.2C in the 1990s, HasSST2 has shown cooling of around -0.06C since 2002.
Max
An ocean heat content peak around the beginning of the century is what we would expect to see from energy considerations.
http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/cloud_palleandlaken2013_zps3c92a9fc.png.html?sort=3&o=29
http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/LymnaandJohnson2013OHCA_zps703732d0.png.html?sort=3&o=2
Maybe it is what you would “expect to see” but it is not what others would expect nor what the data reflects.
Earlier heat content data to depth had coverage of about 15% – so is questionable.
But the data of changing cloud – and the most recent OHCA – are what they are and they are consilient. Yet you continue to ignore the data that doesn’t fit your preconceptions on the basis of nothing at all but bald assertions about what experts think. Obviously not all think that the evidence is ironclad for warmist propaganda.
OHC data since 2002 is the best we have yet and none of it shows the oceans cooling if that is indeed what Spencer said. Satellite derived data is not a good proxy for ocean heat content. It might tell you SST’s but not heat content at depth. You need to drop a probe in the ocean and actually measure the temperature.
Clouds are net cooling and negatively correlated with SST. So we are looking at energy flux at TOA. Energy changes at TOA and ocean heat are complementary evidence.
ARGO has an increase in OHC – which can be seen in Lyman and Johnson. It is the so-called missing CERES heat content. Odd that it is all in SW.
http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/CERES_MODIS-1.gif.html?sort=3&o=100
This seems likely to turn around as SST cool as the current cool IPO intensifies.
Gates says, “You need to drop a probe in the ocean and actually measure the temperature,” and neglects to say the added amount he’d like to find requires accuracy to the thousandths of a degree and is far less than the variance simply due to our inability to accurately measure in such minute detail.
R. Gates
Don’t know “what Spencer said” (nor do you, apparently), but there is no question that the sea surface temperature (HadSST2) has decreased by around 0.06C since 2002.
Max
And Michael Mann in the Grauniad describes our hostess as “serial climate disinformer Judith Curry”.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2013/sep/28/ipcc-climate-change-deniers
Little Mikey is a very classy guy!
From someone who can not even plot his data the right way up , that’s impressive.
The best compliment a climate scientist can get is a slur from “Mick the Shtick”
Figure SPM.1 tells very well, how significant the pause is from the point of view of empirical data. (It’s barely noticeable at all.)
From the point of view of climate models it’s more important. Many models had even without the pause a tendency to predict rather too much than too little warming in comparison with observations. With the pause the deviation starts to be statistically significant. The variability in the models may have too little auto-correlation, and the models seem to predict somewhat higher values for TCR than is likely based on empirical analyses.
That’s a point where SPM seems to fail. It jumps from discussion about historical warming to projections based on models without discussion on the reliability and potential biases of the models.
Another paragraph that I don’t like is
That doesn’t make clear what a hot temperature extreme means: Is it an extreme in comparison to average temperatures at the time of the event or an extreme in comparison to some past temperatures? The paragraph is justified by science only in the latter interpretation, but I’m sure many interpret it to mean the more severe first alternative.
Pekka
Taking 10-year averages to plot a new trend that has lasted just a bit more than ten years is not a very robust or meaningful statistical analysis.
IPCC should have taken the annual values, in which case the reversal of the 1990s warming trend would have become more apparent.
IPCC used what is known as “chartmanship”.
Max
PS But I agree with your other comments.
Max,
Nobody claims that the ten year averages tell about the behavior over the last 10 years. What the Figure SPM.1 does is to show both annual data and ten year averages. This combination tells clearly and correctly, what’s essential and what’s not as far as we want to learn qualitatively about the global temperature changes.
The hiatus has affected also the ten year average. The change is not insignificant for quantitative results as can be seen from the TCR estimates of the Otto et al paper. The present best estimate of TCR would be higher, if temperatures had kept on rising.
Yes, it shows how inept Otto was in his characterization. He could have and should have compensated for the SOI noise term, which would have put the TCR at 2C and thus reduced the uncertainty.
The pause is a noise artifact that should have NO bearing on the prediction of the eventual TCR. As the SOI reverts to its historical mean of zero and the underlying warming signal continues, the signal-to-noise ratio will continue to increase. Eliminating this artifact now is perfectly valid given the historical evidence of past SOI fluctuations.
It is a sad day when the CSM is more cogent in its commentary on climate science than is the IPCC in its own report for decision makers. To take one example:
“Still, the group, which relies on studies published in peer-reviewed journals for its overviews, didn’t have much to go on, acknowledges Working Group 1′s co-chairman, Dr. Stocker. “I’m afraid to say there is not a lot of published literature that allows us to delve deeper into the required depth of this emerging scientific question,” he says, citing a lack of adequate measurements of ocean heating, especially in the deep ocean, as one hindrance.”
So, Dr. Stocker, you admit that the question of “the missing heat in the deep oceans” is an emerging question and that there is not a lot of published literature on it YET you cite the “missing heat” as a partial explanation of the pause and you cite it again as an explanation of how you know that warming continues despite the pause. Sir, you sound like a drunk trying to explain to his pious wife why there is a hooker in her bed.
In case someone might miss my main point, there is no way that the “missing heat” should have been included in this IPCC report as something more than pure conjecture.
+100
(I like the “drunk, hooker and pious wife” analogy)
PS I saw Dr. Stocker give the Stockholm party line on Swiss TV a couple of days ago. When the interviewer asked him for an explanation for the “pause”, he fumbled and stumbled around, essentially saying it was simply a short-term phenomenon that had no impact on the long-term AGW trend, of which scientists were now even more confident than before.
NCAR had a media teleconference Friday with some of its IPCC lead authors. The audio is supposedly now available at
http://www2.ucar.edu/atmosnews/news/10327/ipcc-report-teleconference-wg1-2013
Interesting to see if the pause-like hiatus non-stoppage got asked about? I do not have time to check. NCAR is very green. Here are the listed speakers:
— Linda Mearns, NCAR, Chapter 1 review editor (Introduction) and Chapter 14 contributing author (Climate Phenomena and their Relevance for Future Regional Climate Change)
— Brian Soden, University of Miami, Chapter 2 lead author (Observations: Atmosphere and Surface)
— Gerald Meehl, NCAR, Chapter 11 lead author (Near-term Climate Change: Projections and Predictability)
— Tad Pfeffer, University of Colorado, Chapter 13 lead author (Sea Level Change)
David Wojick
I suffered through the whole teleconference audio and made detailed notes. I’ll spare you these but will give you my overall impression.
The four scientists involved stuck to the official consensus party line. They all defended the models based on “actual observations from 1990 to 2012” versus model simulations. The major change between AR4 and AR5 is that the worst case sea level projection by 2100 has increased from 0.59m to 0.82m, largely as a result of considering “rapid dynamics” of ice (an area that needs more work); otherwise the conclusions are pretty much the same.
Although it came up in the Q+A segment, the 21st century period of slight cooling was only mentioned voluntarily by one of the four, Gerald Meehl. He referred to it as a “hiatus”, where “warming was not very large over the last decade or so”. Models are able to simulate this “hiatus”. This short-term phenomenon will not change the relentless long-term greenhouse warming, and the “flip side” of the hiatus will be periods of accelerated warming. Natural fluctuations, including changes in ocean circulation and small to medium volcanoes, were cited as the principal reasons, rather than human aerosols, which actually decreased over the past decade.
Unfortunately IMO, two of the four resorted to outright fear-mongering. Brian Soden stated that he lived in Florida only 3m above sea level, so he has personal fears regarding the projected higher SL rises (worst case around 0.8m by 2100!). Linda Mearns stated that the term “winners and losers” has gone “in and out of fashion”, and that the biggest losers of a 3.7C warmer world would be poor undeveloped nations in the tropics, but that the recent floods in Colorado plus Hurricane Katrina showed that even rich, developed nations could become climate “losers” (despite the fact that Soden had conceded earlier that there is little evidence that hurricane number and intensity is affected by increased temperature from AGW). She also expressed concern that the policymakers would be too slow in reacting to the new information and that increased engagement between scientists and decision makers/implementers was needed.
Sea level expert, Tad Pfeffer was arguably the least “panicky” of the four, but he pointed out that even small, likely increases in sea level could have worse consequences than less likely cataclysmic changes. He also stated that a late summer “ice-free” Arctic could become a reality by the end of the century.
No “tough questions” were asked and the whole thing was simply a restating and defending of the IPCC consensus paradigm.
Max
“He attributed the oversight to a tendency of each group working on each of the 14 chapters to rely on some other chapter to deal with the issue. And anyone who was thinking about it at all thought some other chapter should handle the issue.”
How terribly convenient. This is right up there with the dog crapped on my homework. Let’s just suppose for a second that the temps trended warmer than the models. Do you suppose they’d have forgotten to include that?
In any case, if it’s actually true, how pathetic!
Should be “had trended warmer…”
In other words, no one was responsible for coordination and, therefore, no one can be held responsible. Fire him.
So Pauchari is not a hands-on head of the IPCC? Then who is running this train-wreck?
Mayor
Pachauri is the only railroad engineer of the bunch, so he’s the man at the throttle of this train wreck.
Max
Here is an official summary of the IPCC meeting that presents many of the issues discussed in plenary, which countries spoke on each side, and how each issue was decided. Interesting to see if the hiatus-pause came up.
http://www.iisd.ca/vol12/enb12581e.html
Judy,
a few days ago you quoted an article from SPIEGEL online in which a possible disagreement was outlined between a top German climatologist (Marotzke) and the German government. The quotes you reproduced, however, were focused on issues of scientific honesty. The Spiegel article explains how M. and the gov were pushing for two different replies to the ‘hiatus’:
“Despite resistance from many researchers, the German ministries insist that it is important not to detract from the effectiveness of climate change warnings by discussing the past 15 years’ lack of global warming. Doing so, they say, would result in a loss of the support necessary for pursuing rigorous climate policies. “Climate policy needs the element of fear,” Ott openly admits. “Otherwise, no politician would take on this topic.”
Science vs. Climate Politics
Germany’s Federal Ministry of Research would prefer to leave any discussion of the global warming hiatus entirely out of the new IPCC report summary. “In climate research, changes don’t count until they’ve been observed on a timescale of 30 years,” claims one delegate participating in the negotiations on behalf of German Research Minister Johanna Wanka of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). The Ministry for the Environment’s identical stance: “Climate fluctuations that don’t last very long are not scientifically relevant.”
At most, German delegates at the conference would be willing to include an admission that “the pace of temperature change has slowed” — a reinterpretation that doesn’t correspond to the latest research findings.
Germany’s highest-ranking climate researcher, physicist Jochem Marotzke, director of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, in Hamburg, is fighting back against this refusal to face facts. Marotzke, who is also president of the German Climate Consortium and Germany’s top scientific representative in Stockholm, promises, “We will address this subject head-on.” The IPCC, he says, must engage in discussion about the standstill in temperature rise.”
So here you go. It is on record.
Dr. Marotzke said. Instead, he suggested, this likely is a confluence of conditions where, in Yahtzee terms, the system rolled three dice and all came up sixes.
Or perhaps he mean three ones. Three sixes would have the 80’s and 90’s warming period, wouldn’t it, doc?
Either way, at least we can now understand that the alarming rise in temps at the end of the 20th c. was just one of those Yahzee! moments and little to do with CO2.
To pretend that ‘oops, we forgot’ when there were specific changes made to the July draft text concerning this issue and it was reported last week that the german minister of the environment wanted any mention of ‘ the pause’ removed (Der Spiegel), and it got removed, is nothing short of disingenuous.
http://bobtisdale.wordpress.com/2013/09/27/side-by-side-comparison-of-draft-and-final-ipcc-ar5-spm-on-warming-plateau-and-attribution/
Judy, nice spotting of this interview with Marotzke. Given that Marotzke told reporters only a few days ago that they would address this issue “head on” as you aptly featured a few days ago, it is discordant that he now describes the neglect of the issue as an “oversight”. I presume that Oppenheimer “extensive discussion” will be closely related to Box 9.2 of the Draft distributed to governments. I have a copy of this and commented on the many defects of Box 9.2 at Climate Audit a couple of days ago http://climateaudit.org/2013/09/24/two-minutes-to-midnight/. I’ll upload the Government Draft and comment on the differences.
Reblogged this on CraigM350.
Quite how they can suggest, with a straight face, that the piffling volcanism since Mt Pinatubo eruption (about 2% of the latter) is some way accounts for the down turn is beggars belief.
That they resort to such barefaced dishonesty shows how thoroughly they know the game is over on the science.
All that is left is politicing , or the worst kind.
It hasn’t. It’s the Southern Oscillation Index that accounts for the fluctuations, just like it has for the majority of the noise spikes over the past 130 years.
Judith wondered last week how they would deal with uncertainly.
It seems the answer is to tuck it away in foot note on page 11.
http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/nobest-estimate-sensitivity1.jpg
That AR5 SPM now explicitly avoids ANY and ALL estimation of climate sensitivity makes all further comment about relative attribution and above all future projections without any logical basis.
The rest of SPM5 is null and void, without it.
As others have pointed out, it is very clever; there is an out for the IPCC whatever happens. Heh, it’s so clever, it is meaningless. Chimeric, fantastic.
=======================================
SpringyBoy, You obviously don’t understand the simple physical principles underlying this type of natural variability. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is the difference in sea-level pressure measured at Darwin and Tahiti. This SOI when scaled into temperature units makes up most of the natural variability seen in global temperature records such as GISS, extending back to 1880.
You can see this in the top panel here below where I plot the scaled SOI on top of a warming trend.
http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/9159/hpi.gif
The major gaps shown occur where major volcanic eruptions take place. Otherwise the profiles match wiggle for wiggle.
Since atmospheric pressure differences at sea-level cannot be sustained for great amounts of time, and must necessarily revert to a mean value near zero, you will see the SOI pseudo-oscillate about zero. This makes the SOI a zero-sum game. The only way the mean could differ from zero in the long run is if the mean atmospheric pressure changed in both sites, and the change was different at each site. There is no evidence of this happening, and the means in each location may in fact be changing in unison.
This is really too easy to understand and I am sure actual climate scientists must tire of explaining this, as it is likely blatantly obvious to them.
Albedo plays into the overall warming trend because it is a positive feedback on the CO2 forcing function which triggers the global warming.
ENSO is the largest source of interannual temperature variation on the planet. Something that has been known for decades.
The SOI responds to warm pools. When seas are warm around Darwin and cooler around Tahiti – air rises at Darwin causing low sea level pressures. Air falls at Tahiti increasing sea level pressure and cloud at lower levels. The trade winds pick up intensifying La Nina and ocean mixing. The reverse happens in El Nino.
A critically important thing to note is that the intensity and frequency of ENSO changes decadally. You can see it here in Claus Wolter’s MEI.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ts.gif‘
More frequent and bigger La Nina to 1976, more frequent and bigger El Nino to 1998, and larger and more La Nina since. The periods mirror the PDO modes showing that both have the same origin. It mirrors as well the warming and cooling episodes.
http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/ENSO11000.gif.html?sort=3&o=143
The multi-decadal regimes are significant. They are the result of slow changes in the Sun – primarily solar UV and ozone interactions – amplifying through Pacific ocean and atmospheric circulation. The pressure of the control variable builds until there is an abrupt climate shift. Solar UV/ozone interactions change the sea level pressure in polar and sub-polar regions changing the strength of the polar cyclones. More or less cold polar water is pushed into the Peruvian and Californian Currents. When cool enough at the surface in upwelling zones – cold water upwells from the abyss setting up a series of positive feedbacks across the Pacific. The period that climate is in these quasi equilibrium warm or cool states varies from 20 to 40 years. It suggests that cooler conditions are much more likely than not to persist for another decade to three.
The SOI time series is not stationary over periods of interest – the latest warming period and the current cooling for instance. ENSO is not stationary over 1000’s of years.
e.g. http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/ENSO11000.gif.html?sort=3&o=143
These are ocean and atmosphere circulations that cause large changes in radiant flux at toa. Webby’s fundamentally limited perspective results in a dogmatic misunderstanding of this science rather than any real insight.
Meant this one rather than the ENSO proxy twice – http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/PDO_zps89a7b4c1.jpg.html?sort=3&o=45
Thanks. Very important.
I appreciate it. Now that we can use the SOI to remove the fluctuations in the global temperature record, the pause disappears and the underlying warming trend is revealed for all to see.
http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/9159/hpi.gif
Using that as a model for projecting future temperatures, it becomes almost impossible for a pause or hiatus to continue to obscure the trend. The SOI has reached the end of its effectiveness as a compensating factor and the relentless underlying warming trend will once again dominate.
That’s pretty funny webster.
Webster, I seem to remember that solar had something to do with tropical ocean stuff like ENSO and SOI and PDO and such.
http://redneckphysics.blogspot.com/2013/09/the-tropical-oceans-and-solar-forcing.html
PDO doesn’t do anything. It’s all SOI. If you want to attribute the latter to solar, you can go knock yourself out. Doesn’t matter because the SOI reverts to the mean, while the warming trend continues to increase.
Webster is wrong as usual – the PDO and ENSO together make the Pacific Decadal Variation. Without an understanding of which nothing makes much sense – so who’s surprised.
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/29/how-the-ipcc-forgot-to-mention-the-pause/#comment-390184
Try this – http://circulaciongeneral.at.fcen.uba.ar/material/seminarios09/Burgman_etal_2008.pdf
He reads one paper and decides h knows all. Freakin’ hilarious.
Yet the SOI is what explains the fluctuation variance and the pause in the recent data.
However, the agenda-driven commenters like The Chief refuse to acknowledge this, because it does not suit the needs of their narrative.
Check it out:
http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/9159/hpi.gif
Capt’nDallas
http://redneckphysics.blogspot.com/2013/09/the-tropical-oceans-and-solar-forcing.html
My mind’s eye is having a hard time with everything layered at once.
Do you have, maybe animated, whereby each item is layered one at a time so I could see each addition, one at a time?
I am also trying to incorporate Chief’s solar UV/ozone into sea surface pressure construct and I need all the individual pieces laid out piece by piece for this neophyte.
Thank you if you have the time.
The idea is not that ENSO doesn’t affect. The idea from way back is that it does. This has been typically misunderstood by space cadets like the webster who finally have to incorporate it through post facto rationalisation. You can fit the wiggles in the temperature record because ENS causes warming and cooling.
ENSO changes decadally as well. This is known to anyone who has a clue.
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/ts.gif
La Nina to 1976, El Nino to 1998 and La Nina again since. The pacific – the Pacific Decadal Variation – e.g. http://circulaciongeneral.at.fcen.uba.ar/material/seminarios09/Burgman_etal_2008.pdf – added to recent warming (1976 to 1998) and caused the non warming at least in the last decade.
e.g. – http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8703
It takes a lot of insanity to be able to ignore what NASA and many others are saying.
Reminds me of the way the UK CG1 enquiries managed to avoid assessing the science – the ‘sleight of hand’ as Phil Willis put it. Compare from above:
“[Marotzke] attributed the oversight to a tendency of each group working on each of the 14 chapters to rely on some other chapter to deal with the issue. And anyone who was thinking about it at all thought some other chapter should handle the issue.”
with the transcription of Harrabin’s interview with Willis at
http://climateaudit.org/2010/07/07/harrabin-on-ueas-sleight-of-hand-phil-willis/#comments
The first enquiry, a general inquiry from the Commons Science Committee was curtailed by the election. It cleared the UEA scientists of wrongdoing, but blamed the university for being uncooperative with information. The second enquiry was set up by UEA in conjunction with the Royal Society and chaired by Lord Oxburgh. It was called the Science Assessment Panel and its stated remit was to examine the university’s key publications – the key science in other words which had been most subject to comment. The third enquiry – today’s enquiry – is by the former senior civil servant Sir Russell. It will present an analysis of the emails and judge if the scientists involved cheated. So now, three enquiries all with different and complementary themes.
Certainly that’s how it sounded to Phil Willis, who chaired the commons committee:
“The whole purpose of having this if you like tripartite approach to the emails scandal as it was, was that Muir Russel would look at the emails, my committee was looking to make sure that there was a proper scrutiny process in place, and of course the Royal Society, headed by Lord Oxburgh, would look at the rigour of the science.”
Climate sceptics in particular were delighted. The UEA’s press release announced that Oxburgh would assess the science of the UEA’s most controversial papers. Skeptics assumed this meant it would assess the quality of the science, which they doubted. But they were to be disappointed. Lord Oxburgh told me the university had asked him not to assess the quality of the controversial science, but to check the integrity of the research, to make sure the scientists hadn’t twisted it to conform to a pre-set agenda, a charge on which they were swiftly exonerated by the Oxburgh review. Now it may have been a subtle difference to shift the remit from assessing the science to assessing the integrity of the science but it was a substantial one in the view of Phil Willis when he saw the Oxburgh report.
“Quite frankly I couldn’t believe it. It took us no further down the line at all from what the select committee report did or indeed from what the Muir Russell inquiry will do. I frankly think that there has been a sleight of hand in that the actual terms of reference are not what we were led to believe.”
[end transcript]
For SPM5, the draft led us to believe the hiatus would be addressed (but it wasn’t). For the UK enquiries, the terms of reference led us to believe the science at UEA would be addressed (but it wasn’t).
All of the so-called reviews which came after ClimateGate and purportedly cleared the suspects, were corrupted, and each in its own special way. A primer from the bullets points of each torsion of truth.
=================
That’s exactly the same as I have been thinking reading this Dale. The Climategate inquiries were a master class of deception and looking anywhere but where they would uncover the guilt. The British ruling classes have perfected this type of inquiry to an art form. In fact anyone familiar with the comedy series Yes Minister and Yes Prime Minister will know the routine well.
Heck, no one’s arguin` with *that*, eh jbenton2013?
The Pause.
What a lovely euphemism for when Nature trumps Hubris.
The Deep Oceans.
Where better to hide Inconvenient Truths?
Hmmmmmm. How about we replace “deep oceans” with “Davey Jones’ Locker?”
The CS Monitor reporter wrote: “As the number of sunspots fall, solar radiation reaching Earth is reduced. While those reductions are tiny in absolute numbers, researchers have uncovered mechanisms by which the climate system can amplify the effect of those small changes.”
This is strange. The reduction may be “tiny” in absolute numbers. It corresponds to a reduction in average solar forcing of 0.20 W/m^2 from the fist to the second half of the recent 15 year period. That cancels about 2/3rd of the increase in greenhouse gas forcing over the same period. So, it’s not tiny at all in relative terms. Considering next the ENSO cycle, the slowdown in the rate of warming is completely unsurprising.
Absolutely. I have been pushing this with a quantitative analysis that actually demonstrates the removal of the pause and reduction in fluctuation variance if this ENSO noise source is removed, yet it seems like the skeptics would rather keep their blinders on.
It is essentially the same as using noise-cancelling headphones. There are ways of removing the noise from the signal. We know the noise source in climate. We can remove it and we know that it won’t get worse, because it historically has stayed within bounds.
.
http://img69.imageshack.us/img69/9159/hpi.gif
Solar activity is just past the peak declining to 2020 and probably beyond that is longer term changes in TSI.
Just discovering ENSO? It is actually the IPO – otherwise known as the Pacific Decadal Variation. The phases last 20 to 40 years.
e.g. – http://circulaciongeneral.at.fcen.uba.ar/material/seminarios09/Burgman_etal_2008.pdf
Some of us have been talking about it for a decade. It influences cloud cover through SST.
http://www.americanthinker.com/2007/11/enso_variation_and_global_warm.html
http://judithcurry.com/2011/02/09/decadal-variability-of-clouds/
This is a crisis of leadership in the IPCC. It is the leader’s job to make sure all bases are covered. Clearly the present leader failed in that objective and should resign.
I have always maintained that the climate change problem should have been put to open tender. A consortium could have been put together to handle the problem effectively’ The UNFCCC, having swallowed the fiction that the ‘science was settled’ took the wrong path and landed the world in the present mess.
The cold hard facts are clear in the IPCC’s own data. Yet, these denialists refuse the acknowledge the hiatus.
What is wrong with these people? Do they not believe in science? Do they not care about the environment? Are they beholden to some wealthy special interest? Do they still think the earth is flat?
Dr. Spencer is essentially saying a belief that [Trenberthian] global warming, if any, ‘is entirely manmade and has never happened before, requires too much faith for even me to muster.”
“As the number of sunspots fall, solar radiation reaching Earth is reduced. While those reductions are tiny in absolute numbers, researchers have uncovered mechanisms by which the climate system can amplify the effect of those small changes.”
Really? The why do the models not include any of them? e.g. cosmic rays. And why do these amplfication mechanisms only help cool the earth when Mother Nature stubbornly refuses to go along with the models? And why did IPCC deny that they could be a factor contributing to warming when the global temp went up.
The hypocrisy is stunning.
“This does not mean that global warming has stopped, because the ocean is still taking up heat, sea level is still rising, ice is still melting everywhere we look, Dr. Marotzke said.”
OMG!!!!! “ice is still melting everywhere we look,”
I guess you closed your eyes when you looked int he southern hemisphere.
Antarctica set a record for all-time sea ice extent in both 2012 and 2013.
IPCC = Pathological Liars.
Cooling effect due to ‘a confluence of conditions.’
Warming report due to a congruence of climatologists.
‘I do think an argument can be made for the ‘pause’ being within a normal oscillation but I’d defer to WebHub and Chief Hydro and their ongoing argument. And the winner is….’
Unlike El Niño and La Niña, which may occur every 3 to 7 years and last from 6 to 18 months, the PDO can remain in the same phase for 20 to 30 years. The shift in the PDO can have significant implications for global climate, affecting Pacific and Atlantic hurricane activity, droughts and flooding around the Pacific basin, the productivity of marine ecosystems, and global land temperature patterns. This multi-year Pacific Decadal Oscillation ‘cool’ trend can intensify La Niña or diminish El Niño impacts around the Pacific basin,” said Bill Patzert, an oceanographer and climatologist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pasadena, Calif. “The persistence of this large-scale pattern [in 2008] tells us there is much more than an isolated La Niña occurring in the Pacific Ocean.”
Natural, large-scale climate patterns like the PDO and El Niño-La Niña are superimposed on global warming caused by increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases and landscape changes like deforestation. According to Josh Willis, JPL oceanographer and climate scientist, “These natural climate phenomena can sometimes hide global warming caused by human activities. Or they can have the opposite effect of accentuating it.” http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/IOTD/view.php?id=8703
You just have to find the scientific consensus.
e.g. http://circulaciongeneral.at.fcen.uba.ar/material/seminarios09/Burgman_etal_2008.pdf
Amongst many others
The PDO doesn’t do squat to explain the global temperature fluctuations compared to how well the SOI does it.
It’s really not that hard to do this Chief. Yet you seem so completely inept at doing any sort of quantitative analysis, and your little linkies and copy&pasties seem to be your crutch whenever you start to panic.
‘This study uses proxy climate records derived from paleoclimate data to investigate the long-term behaviour of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). During the past 400 years, climate shifts associated with changes in the PDO are shown to have occurred with a similar frequency to those documented in the 20th Century. Importantly, phase changes in the PDO have a propensity to coincide with changes in the relative frequency of ENSO events, where the positive phase of the PDO is associated with an enhanced frequency of El Niño events, while the negative phase is shown to be more favourable for the development of La Niña events.’ http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2005GL025052/abstract
You can invert the SOI and take the first derivative of global tropospheric temperature anomalies and of the SOI – and test for correlation.
http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/McLeanetal2009-Fig2_zpsbe85fcc0.png.html
Or just directly overlay and eyeball it in.
http://s1114.photobucket.com/user/Chief_Hydrologist/media/maclean-2009-Fig4.gif.html?sort=3&o=125
http://www.auscsc.org.au/images/PDF/influenceofenso.pdf
But if you don’t understand the data you’re pretending to work with – as you don’t – everything you say remains total nonsense.
well/
http://i43.tinypic.com/33mqypt.png
Very informative as usual Chief.
The McLean fig2 plot shows a remarkable correlation prior to 2002. Since then there is a steady positive trend in the SOI derivative compared to the level GTTA derivative.
What does that signify? Regime change?
change in atm CO2 correlated well then SST during 1970-2000 warming but less well since.
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=233
Since then it correlated very closely with AO index, whereas it was less correlated before.
http://climategrog.wordpress.com/?attachment_id=259
Greg Goodman,
Why are adopting a sockpuppet identity of your blog name?
Otherwise, it is obvious that you are very nervous over how well that the SOI explains the fluctuations in the global temperature time series.
You are way too smart to not see this, and so are trying to discredit it through some fancy footwork that won’t go anywhere.
Yea, that’s the stuff by that Aussie denier Bob Carter.
He writes it all up and then doesn’t make the connection to how it reduces the warming only temporarily.
Chief, it will never work to hide the info and spin the results. People will figure this out, no matter how much you try to obscure it.
Actually – here’s a PDO model study.
‘Our results highlight that an initialization of the upper-ocean state using historical observations is effective for successful hindcasts of the PDO and has a great impact on future predictions. Ensemble hindcasts for the 20th century demonstrate a predictive skill in the upper-ocean temperature over almost a decade, particularly around the Kuroshio-Oyashio extension (KOE) and subtropical oceanic frontal regions where the PDO signals are observed strongest. A negative tendency of the predicted PDO phase in the coming decade will enhance the rising trend in surface air-temperature (SAT) over east Asia and over the KOE region, and suppress it along the west coasts of North and South America and over the equatorial Pacific. This suppression will contribute to a slowing down of the global-mean SAT rise.’
Pacific decadal oscillation hindcasts relevant to near-term climate prediction – http://www.pnas.org/content/107/5/1833.full
It sure is relevant to near term climate prediction and SAT sure is slowin’ down. It must suck webster – you try and try and try but still get it all wrong. I wonder why that is? I’d frankly go for dumb as a doorknob.
http://www.pnas.org/content/107/5/1833.full
,In a near-term climate prediction covering the period up to 2030, we require knowledge of the future state of internal variations in the climate system such as the PDO as well as the global warming signal.
works for +17 years
does not work for -17 years
This is the second comment in response to something I wrote. The first I ignored. I have no idea at all what you are trying to say in either.
Sorry.
I am a legitimate troll [in reverse]
I have an immense difficulty with non-Latin languages.
I’ll try again.
I hope.
Honestly.
you see that there is a problem.
[Niño 3.4] and [PDO] not exactly [a masterpiece] in October.
http://i1195.photobucket.com/albums/aa391/MAFILI/Outubropdosp_zpsac342550.png
HOW the IPCC forgot to mention the pause, how? SHOCKING!!!
Did they forgot about it? No, the pause gives them the biggest insomnia…
BUT THEY FORGOT ABOUT IT…?
The strange thing is that you (and several others) are posting this as a reply to a blog post that acknowledges the statement made by them in the summary for policymakers. “The result is a statement that the slowdown in the rate of warming over the past 15 years is – with medium confidence – due equally to natural variability in the climate system and to a combination of changes in what researchers dub climate “forcings” […]”
So, yes, they forgot to “mention” it through making an explicit “statement” about it. Maybe you can blame the title of this blog post.
The SPM moves things forward to this limited extent: It is now official mainstream science that nobody can agree on what the ‘most likely’ figure is for ECS. That means no economist can do a confident benefit:cost study based on this report and all previous attempts to establish the “social cost of carbon” are undermined.
The new low end of the range will mean there’s not much to worry about, while the top end spells catastrophe. So all results turn upon which end of the spectrum is favoured – and that has now to be a political decision because the scientists have abdicated.
Because of discounting, whether at realisitic rates or Stern’s ‘moral philosophy’ rates, the timing of future warming levels drives the NPV of both benefits and detriments. That timing is unguessable without a sensitivity figure.
Pingback: Calvin and Hobbes explain…the IPCC | Omnologos
If they try to claim that a decrease in solar activity is causing “the pause,” they’ll have a hard time explaining why the solar activity of the last half of last century–being higher than any period in 1000 years–did not mostly cause the recent warming.
Pingback: Marotzke’s Broken Promise « Climate Audit
Judith Curry, there appears to be zero evidence that the title’s claim is true. The world wonders!
Perhaps the real story is different (and better): Everyone agrees.
That is a more scientific, more objectively verifiable story, isn’t it?
And pretty cool too!
Global warming obsessed schoolteachers are helping raise up generations that are worthless to the perpetuation of the American dream — only more drones for a failed secular, socio-Euroconomy living on others’ dribbles.
Can anybody explain why the pause in stratospheric cooling, that is even longer than the pause in warming, is never even mentioned? Does AR5 deal with it?
Your search for scientific understanding is admirable Time! Please consult Satellite measurements of warming in the troposphere for a detailed scientific discussion. Your appreciation of the emergent “Everyone Agrees” Climate-Change Consensus will be substantially increased.
That question was well-asked, Tim!
Well, thanks for the response, Fan, but your link does not address the issue except to make the statement that the stratosphere is cooling, without any backup whatsoever.
It would appear to the naive eye, that in fact, the stratosphere has not cooled since before the pause in tropospheric warming. Perhaps you have another link that directly answers my question.
http://chartsgraphs.wordpress.com/2011/02/01/atmospheric-temperature-structure-2-stratospheric-cooling/
Time, perhaps you have not yet clicked to the “Advanced Science“ tab!
Your thirst for scientific understanding is commendable, Tim!
Your advanced link once again ignores that there has been no cooling in the stratosphere since 1995, and manufactures cooling for that era by moving the endpoints back to a time when el Chichon and Mt Pinatubo undoubtedly warmed the stratosphere.
So, to get around your stubborn refusal to answer the question, I will ask you a new question, why has the trend in stratospheric cooling lessened every year for the past 18 years when GHG have risen as they have?
Tim, it is not clear to me (or anyone) which paragraph(s) of Scott Church’s Climate Change & Tropospheric Temperature Trends are most significantly concerning to you!
Fan, basically the same chart that is reproduced in your link from ‘skeptical’ science. The one that shows no stratospheric cooling since 1995, or, if you insist on extending the endpoints beyond 18 years, why does the trend in stratospheric cooling decrease year after year while GHG concentration rises?
Fan
1. Church’s document is painfully out of date
2. He cites a well known believer in creationism
“In the early 90’s, it was shown that by combining Channel 2 data at
nadir with fractionally weighted data from 8 of the original 10 off-nadir views, a weighted measurement could be
derived that emphasizes a thinner layer of the lower troposphere centered at 4 km altitude (Spencer and Christy,
1992b). This virtual channel has come to be called MSU2LT (for Channel 2 Lower Troposphere). With the advent of
the AMSU products, the same philosophy can be followed using the 30 view angles of AMSU products. The newer
AMSU weighted lower troposphere view is now called MSUTLT (Christy et al., 2003). Figure 7 shows the weighting
function of the MSU2LT channel (labeled as MSU/AMSULT). The MSU2LT and MSUTLT channels remove most of
the stratospheric influence, but they are based on a wide angle swath that neglects zonal 3
(that is, east to west)
temperature gradients. As such, they are sensitive to temperature fluctuations that happen on timescales comparable
to the east to west drift in the satellite’s equatorial crossings and are thus subject to sampling errors. They are also
sensitive to direct surface emissions. “
Steven,
I am seriously interested in this question. I am not trying to pick holes in arguments or anything, I want to know, has there been stratospheric cooling over the past 18 years?
Can you point me to a data set or paper that clearly lays out the most recent findings regarding this trend?
More Peter Thorne: straightforward, complete, clear eyed
“Confidence is low for a global-scale observed trend in drought or dryness (lack of rainfall) since the
middle of the 20th century, due to lack of direct observations, methodological uncertainties and
geographical inconsistencies in the trends. Based on updated studies, AR4 conclusions regarding global
increasing trends in drought since the 1970s were probably overstated. However, this masks important
regional changes: the frequency and intensity of drought has likely increased in the Mediterranean and West
Africa and likely decreased in central North America and north-west Australia since 1950. [2.6.2.2]”
There of course was no Nuremberg styled trial when the Soviets fell in 89-90′, there is something wholly unsatisfactory from a historical perspective that certainly reflect poorly on the current post-Soviet states for this omission.
We should be discussing what the “science” community did for the “cause” of the AGW agenda over the recent decades and the obvious politics so consistently scrubbed by Dr. Curry and her followers in the meek capitulation and middling approach presented daily here. AGW wasn’t just wrong or about “science”, it was transcendental abuse of power and authority and a force of evil in the world.
They should lose their jobs, their funding and grants, acknowledge the political motivations for their efforts and some should certainly be jailed.
In a world of decay and rot this can’t be expected and we are all less because of this.
This is ingteresting. I don’t know if it has been commented on:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2436710/Met-office-proof-global-warming-pause-climate-summit-confirms-global-temperature-stopped-rising.html#ixzz2gEmEdUxK
I recommend looking at the HadCRUT4 data to verify, how honestly David Rose has used it.
That should be done checking also, how he refers to Jan 1997 and Jun 1997, but includes neither in the graph.
The article states that the chart begins June 1997, Pekka. Anyway, the main takeaway is that there has been a 17 year pause. The article states:
“A footnote in the new report also confirms there has been no statistically significant increase since 1997.”
Please explain your issues with the article.
Based on plots at Wood for Trees the graph of David Rose starts in August 1997, which is as warm as average of 1998 and much warmer than the first half of 1997. Thus some of the comments of David Rose seem to be outright cheating.
I haven’t looked at the original data. Thus there’s a possibility that the starting month is not August as I think, but even if it isn’t that does not save Rose. At least the reference to January is badly off the mark.
Pekka said:
“Thus some of the comments of David Rose seem to be outright cheating.”
____
Cherry-picking is quite standard for him. He does it so much his hands must be quite rough from all that picking. Judith’s continual links to him does her no benefit in terms of credibililty IMO. Might as well be associated with the Heartland Institute as it is the same motivated pre-selected data.
Here is the correct HadCRUT4 global average temperature from January 1997. It seems that David Rose started from September 1997.
Pekka,
Rose says that there has been a 17 year pause. He cites (does not quote) the IPCC report:
“A footnote in the new report also confirms there has been no statistically significant increase since 1997.”
If that is correct, what difference does the start date of Rose’s chart make in the grand scheme of things?
Do you believe that the IPCC has addressed the pause issue honestly and adequately? Rose is just a snot nosed journalist/commentator. Shouldn’t the operators of the big publicly funded science machine be held to a higher standard?
This final comment of David Rose is worse than cherry picking:
What David Rose is adding to the present common knowledge in that article is explicitly false. That’s what I’m protesting. Distorting facts like he does is never right.
Concerning the SPM I have written this comment
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/29/how-the-ipcc-forgot-to-mention-the-pause/#comment-389928
I’m not fully satisfied with everything in SPM. I cannot tell yet what I think of the full report.
I wrote elsewhere this comment on the SPM
I don’t think that the SPM is really good for anything. It’s too brief for explaining anything clearly. Whatever is written there is often misunderstood and misused. It’s more an indication of what the delegates can agree upon than a proper presentation of the scientific content of the full report.
The TS has been much better in giving an overview of the scientific content. We’ll see soon, how true that is for AR5 WG1.
I should add that the text of the SPM didn’t change much in Stockholm. Thus it’s almost fully written by the scientists, but they had certainly in mind that it must be approved line-by-line. They had also received earlier comments from the governments before finalizing the latest draft in June.
That Judith continually links to his articles does not mean that she endorses his arguments.
That she fails to editorialize on his inaccuracies, hyperbole, and misrepresentations, however, does show that her approach to the existence of those phenomena in the public debate is, er, selective.
Pekka,
Your pointing out the deficits in the “facts” that Rose puts in his articles is right on the money, but one must look toward the general conservative slant of the paper and its readers. In regards to accurate coverage of things related to science, there seems to be a history of poor preformance by the paper with this note from Wikipedia:
“Dorothy Bishop, professor of neuroscience at Oxford University, in her blog awarded the Daily Mail the “Orwellian Prize for Journalistic Misrepresentation”,[79][80][81][82] calling the Daily Mail’s article “the worst misrepresentation of a scientific article in a national newspaper.”[83]
I think there are two questions, 1) Is it really cheery picking to pick 17 years after Santers published that the minimum should be 17 years?
2) Are climate scientists really that anal?
https://lh6.googleusercontent.com/-nald6FDurIM/UknIKPu87pI/AAAAAAAAJug/SjKvJnJPAns/w817-h508-no/da+Pause.png
Pekka, the rose article stated:
“A footnote in the new report also confirms there has been no statistically significant increase since 1997.”
Is that true or false?
Sloppy writing. If he starts with the 1998 El Nino, then there is obvious cherry picking. If he starts with the La Nina that bottomed out in January 1998, then the warmists can say “look – no pause.” The point he was trying to make, that there has been no (reported) net warming since 1997 seems accurate from the graphs, though I agree that it looks like the real start date is August/September.
I suspect the last line Pekka is complaining about was a typo. But for that, he should certainly be hung from the nearest bristlecone pine tree.
That statement refers probably to this footnote
Trends for 15-year periods starting in 1995, 1996, and 1997 are 0.13 [0.02 to 0.24], 0.14 [0.03 to 0.24], 0.07 [–0.02 to 0.18] °C per decade, respectively.
That’s a footnote to this sentence:
As one example, the rate of warming over the past 15 years (1998–2012; 0.05 [–0.05 to +0.15] °C per decade), which begins with a strong El Niño, is smaller than the rate calculated since 1951 (1951–2012; 0.12 [0.08 to 0.14] °C per decade).
The uncertainty ranges are 90% ranges. At this level the warming from 1997 has a range that extends to negative values. Thus the statement is technically correct.
That footnote was one of the additions made during the Stockholm meeting, and an addition that requires some changes in the full report as well, as those numbers cannot be found from the report but were calculated by the lead authors at Stockholm according to reports from the meeting.
Thank you, Pekka. I knew you could do it.
The real question is, will there be an AR6?
I guess the AR5 full report is available, but it looks like their server crashed.
Instead of the ‘hockey stick’ they now have the jackboot.
The hockey stick is ten thousand years long.
Hey, Dr. Curry. Heads up.
Look who just had the gall to call you “serial climate disinformer Judith Curry”…
How rich is THAT???
http://news.yahoo.com/michael-mann-climate-change-deniers-must-stop-distorting-150312836.html
The hockey puck who is still employed at Penn State?
She already quoted from and linked that in her last blog.
http://judithcurry.com/2013/09/29/2-from-the-australian-financial-review/
Pingback: The WUWT Hotsheet for Monday Sept 30th, 2013 | Watts Up With That?
This is likely their “Last Hurrah” before their credibility falls out from under them.
Has anyone ever calculated the sum total of Expense Accounts, Hotel costs, Airfare, etc. ad nauseum that drained the public troughs of the IPCC’s member countries’ treasuries???
They don’t really have any credibility to lose. That was gone long ago.
They only have media support to lose.
Not “an” oversight, just oversight. By the SPM editors, making sure no obviously fatal discrepancies were acknowledged.
Pingback: Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup | Watts Up With That?