Monthly Archives: August 2012

Activate (?) your science

by Judith Curry

We need bold science and bold action.   There is a vital role for governments to play, but equally importantly is the role of academia, civil society, and industry.  Harnessing that collective commitment is underway – but it remains to be seen if changes will be rapid and substantial enough. Her Excellency noted in her powerful opening remarks that there is a significant gap between the accelerating pace of degradation and the rate of effective response.   
Each of you here can influence the rate of response by activating your science.  - Jane Lubchenco, NOAA Administrator

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Hurricane (?) Isaac

by Judith Curry

Tropical Storm Isaac is now spinning up in the Gulf of Mexico.   The models have finally converged on New Orleans as the landfall location.  Are better forecasts of hurricanes possible?  New research is pointing the way for improvements, and more useful hurricane forecasts are becoming available from the private sector, particularly at longer time horizons and also with regards to landfall impacts.

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AMS Statement on Climate Change

by Judith Curry

The American Meteorological Society (AMS) has just published its new statement on Climate Change.

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Apocalypse not (?)

by Judith Curry

Predictions of global famine and the end of oil in the 1970s proved just as wrong as end-of-the-world forecasts from millennialist priests. Yet there is no sign that experts are becoming more cautious about apocalyptic promises. If anything, the rhetoric has ramped up in recent years. Echoing the Mayan calendar folk, theBulletin of the Atomic Scientists moved its Doomsday Clock one minute closer to midnight at the start of 2012, commenting: “The global community may be near a point of no return in efforts to prevent catastrophe from changes in Earth’s atmosphere.” – Matt Ridley

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Week in review 8/25/12

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

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A modest proposal for sequestration of CO2 in the Antarctic

*** SEE UPDATE AT END OF POST

This is the most interesting idea I’ve encountered in awhile.

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Apportioning natural and forced components in the Arctic amplification

by Judith Curry

These results support the notion that the enhanced wintertime warming over high northern latitudes from 1965 to 2000 was mainly a reflection of unforced variability of the coupled climate system. Some of the simulations exhibit an enhancement of the warming along the Arctic coast, suggestive of exaggerated feedbacks. – Wallace et al.

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On the rapid disintegration of projections

by Judith Curry

How and why did the scientific consensus about sea level rise due to the disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), expressed in the third Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment, disintegrate on the road to the fourth? 

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Week in review 8/18/12

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

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Learning from the octopus

by Judith Curry

Indeed, if there is a single message that sums up all of Sagarin’s work, it’s that organisms realized long ago that the world is a much less predictable place than humans would like to believe.  “We spend a lot of time in planning exercises, making predictive models, and in optimization routines,” says Sagarin. “All of which have essentially been selected against in nature, because they’re incredibly wasteful when you live in an unpredictable world.”

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Making Scotland the Green Energy Capital of Europe

by James Stafford

Reposted with permission from oilprice.com.

We were fortunate enough to have some time with Scotland’s First Minister Alex Salmond where we discussed a broad range of topics from Scotland’s ambitious renewable energy targets and North Sea oil & gas to Scottish independence and Donald Trump.

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Philosophical reflections on climate model projections

by Judith Curry

Should probabilistic qualities be assigned to climate model projections?

Are the approaches used by the IPCC for assessing climate model projection quality – confidence building, subjective Bayesian, and likelihood –  appropriate for climate models?

What are some other approaches that could be used?

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Week in review 8/11/12

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

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Fuzzy dice

by Judith Curry

Much is being made of Hansen’s ‘loaded dice’ as a metaphor for the changing climate.  I think we should be talking about ‘fuzzy dice.’

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‘Consensus’ by exhaustion

by Judith Curry

Regarding the consensus-seeking process for the IPCC SAR:

It is diplomacy by exhaustion. And then it becomes consensus by exhaustion as we shall see. – Bernie Lewin

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Week in review 8/5/12

by Judith Curry

A few things that caught my eye this past week.

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The ‘irresistable’ story of Richard Muller

by Judith Curry

The story surrounding Richard Muller is providing some interesting insights into the psycho-dynamics of climate change science.

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Post Normal Science: Deadlines

by Steven Mosher

Science has changed. More precisely, in post normal conditions the behavior of people doing science has changed.

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John Christy’s EPW testimony

by Judith Curry

John Christy’s testimony to the Senate Committee Environment & Public Works Committee can be found here [christy testimony 2012].

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