Monthly Archives: April 2011

A prediction market for climate outcomes

by Judith Curry

I am a strong believer that academic freedom is essential for scientific progress, and such freedom includes the right to be “wrong.”  In fact, scientists can often learn much from failed experiments and failed predictions.  However, for regulatory science and science for policy, should there be some premium on (and some reward for) actually being “right”?  How can we know what is “right” in the short term? Shi-Ling Hsu has a provocative new essay that advocates an entirely different path for evaluating climate science that draws upon an institution that is truly independent: markets.
.

Continue reading

Tornado madness

by Judith Curry

I’ve been pretty clear about where I stand with regards to the attribution of extreme events to global warming, e.g. see this thread.  The recent tornado outbreak in the southeast U.S. has spawned a number of statements and articles about the cause of the outbreak including, inevitably, global warming.

Continue reading

Uncertainty in Catastrophe Modeling

by Judith Curry

Roger Pielke Jr. has a very interesting post on uncertainty in catastrophe modeling.  The basis for the post is an interview with Karen Clark.  Karen Clark developed the first catastrophe model, and is worried that these models are being given more credit and influence than they deserve.

Continue reading

Brain sprain

by Judith Curry

There is an interesting new paper in press in Behavioral and Brain Science that is generating substantial discussion in the blogosphere, entitled “Why do humans reason? Arguments for an argumentative theory.”  Perhaps this article can provide us with some insights on the climate debate.

Continue reading

Science without method

by Judith Curry

Since people are clamoring for a new thread, lets talk about this article in the the Australian Quadrant entitled “Science without method,”  subtitled “Global warming research: whatever happened to the scientific method?”  To review previous Climate Etc. posts on the Scientific  Method, click here.

Continue reading

Overstretching Attribution

by Judith Curry

Attribution of climate change and its impacts has been a recurring theme at Climate Etc.  The first issue of Nature Climate Change  has a provocative article entitled “Overstretching Attribution.

Continue reading

Polyclimate

by Judith Curry

I am trying to germinate an idea on how to move forward on the climate debate.  Bear with me through this argument, and let me know what you think.

Continue reading