by Judith Curry
I just came across a paper that I view to be remarkably important, entitled “Influence diagrams for representing uncertainty in climate-related propositions,” by Hall, Twyman and Kay. This paper integrates a number of themes that we have been discussing here: reasoning about uncertainty, consilience of evidence, attribution of extreme events, floods, and even the Italian flag(!). And it does the best job I’ve seen of assessing uncertainty and confidence in a climate-related proposition.
