Daily Archives: March 15, 2011

Reasoning about floods and climate change

by Judith Curry

I just came across a paper that I view to be remarkably important, entitled “Influence diagrams for representing uncertainty in climate-related propositions,” by Hall, Twyman and Kay.  This paper integrates a number of themes that we have been discussing here: reasoning about uncertainty, consilience of evidence,  attribution of extreme events, floods, and even the Italian flag(!).  And it does the best job I’ve seen of assessing uncertainty and confidence in a climate-related proposition.

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Foxes, Hedgehogs and Prediction

by Judith Curry

Robert Ellison sent me a link to a review of a book entitled “Future Babble:  Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe Them“, by Dan Gardner, which describes the research of UC Berkeley Professor Philip Tetlock.

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